Bond Trader 2006

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Food for thought:

If you look at the hourly 0900 bar yesterday, the ZB struggled with 114 03.

If you look at the same hourly bar on the ZN, you'll see the ZN struggled with 108 290.

We've broken 108 290 on the ZN.

So far so good.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

FWIW, I think we are done with the lows today and I will be looking to take on considerable size soon. 114 00 or 114 01 is a good entry if we continue up. I think 114 04 is a done deal. You'll make 3 ticks on the trade, if you just want a quick trade.
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My gift to you this morning.
 
The failure to break 114 04 was an excellent shorting opportunity, but I didn't take it. I'm done for the day.

Aren't you glad you exited your longs at 114 03 per my post prior to the 0900 report?

Interesting the way the market sucker punched anyone who was long or went long thinking the 114 04 high would be broken.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

The failure to break 114 04 was an excellent shorting opportunity, but I didn't take it. I'm done for the day.

Aren't you glad you exited your longs at 114 03 per my post prior to the 0900 report?

Interesting the way the market sucker punched anyone who was long or went long thinking the 114 04 high would be broken.
More...

Great journal i just came across it this morning....haha, yea the market suckered me in long the ZN this morning thinking that high would be taken out on the report (although my stop hasnt been hit: 8-25). I'll probably be giving away all my profits from yesterdays breakout above 8-22. Great journal keep it up.
 
Interesting buy volume activity on the 3 min ZB from 0903 to 0918.

If I had to hazard a guess, I would say we will have one more last shot at 114 04 before the day is done.

Note the failure to penetrate 113 26 at 0909.

Bottom line, the double 00's are dangerous. If I were to trade I would be cautious and probably wait on a long until we get back up on solid buy volume to test 114 04.
 
Quote from jsmooth:

Great journal i just came across it this morning....haha, yea the market suckered me in long the ZN this morning thinking that high would be taken out on the report (although my stop hasnt been hit: 8-25). I'll probably be giving away all my profits from yesterdays breakout above 8-22. Great journal keep it up.
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You did not necessarily have a bad trade, just maybe a mistake on not exiting, BUT it all depends on your time frame and the number of ticks you have been historically good for.

As I've stated, I'm good for 4 - 6 ticks. I've remarked that it is rather uncanny in the past. Since I know that is what I'm good for, I almost always take profits at each level, and hold a small portion for further gains. Generally speaking the further gains rarely materialize, however, on full point move days, holding a small portion does wonders for the account as well as the psyche.
 
0924 CST

Ah, this will be a first. A double "V" day. The bottom of the first "V" at 0733 and the bottom of the second "V" at 0909 (on the 3 min ZB).

I'll only call it a double "V" day if we break above 114 07. Let's see.
 
Thursday 30 November 2006

0836 CST

Today is shaping up to be a "V" day. Let's see.

I haven't traded yet as I slept through my alarm and woke up at 0750 CST. I've been biding my time to see where we were headed.

Key numbers from yesterday still hold.

Also look at the numbers where I traded. Those will be very important.

114 01 and 114 04 will be key.

UPDATE 0842 CST
Based on my NN I would say a failure here at 114 00 either won't happen or will be short lived. Obvioulsy a quick down move and retest of the lows negates the observation. Look at the ZN. It appears to be leading the ZB today. I'm banking on new highs for today as of 0842 CST.
 
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