Trading analysis for Tuesday 28 November 2006.
I came in today with a strong bias to the upside. I posted that my long term view, heavily influenced by my observation of the hourly chart on Monday and the ZB failure to break 112 22, is for price to approach 115 00 to 115 19 prior to seeing 112 22 again.
My desire was to buy around 0500 CST or so, but due to the 0730 report I elected not to. I had an old copy of my price S/R handy and simply waited for the report. We spiked up, I had 113 26 as a very important price projection number and I tried to enter between 113 27 and 113 30 only getting filled at 113 30.
Since I was a little nervous about the trade I only took on 2 lots vs my customary 5 - 10 at this time. I had a target of 114 11 that I was shooting for. Obvioulsy we only got to 114 07 and started coming back down. I exited one at 114 05 and held the other.
I wrote that I wanted to buy at 113 24 - 113 26 if possible. For the first move down we only got to 114 00. Ordinarily on a spike up day, this is a perfect entry. I started taking on additional size at 114 01. We got as high as 114 04 and then for the next 30 minutes or so we flip flopped between 114 00 and 114 03.
As I posted, I didn't like the lack of follow through so I exited at break even. During this 30 min time frame after I exited at break even, my NN gave a buy so I went long ZB at 114 01. I ended up taking a small loss on that one when we started breaking down through 114 00.
At that point I decided to possibly call it a day and wait for the 0900 reports.
The 0900 reports came out taking price down to my stated 113 24 - 113 26 buy level. I even mentioned that I really wanted to go long but didn't have the time. That trade would have been good for 5 ticks depending on entry.
Now at 0915 - 0920 you had a choice to make. Do you bank on the breakout to test new the highs of the day or do you bank on what the market has been doing consistently recently, short at 113 31 looking for a failure of the breakout. I did not trade but personally, I would have shorted. First, the early morning spike and lack of follow through to the upside should have warned you. Second the 0900 reports weren't favorable. Third, read up on my double 00's observation.
That is it. Hopefully my wrap up of my activity is helpful.
Regarding not shorting at 114 00, I think that was too early to make a commitment to a reversal in trend for the day. In my opinion, the only trades today were long at a good entry off of the 0730 report, long at 113 25 off of the 0900 report and finally short at the BO failure at 113 31.
I came in today with a strong bias to the upside. I posted that my long term view, heavily influenced by my observation of the hourly chart on Monday and the ZB failure to break 112 22, is for price to approach 115 00 to 115 19 prior to seeing 112 22 again.
My desire was to buy around 0500 CST or so, but due to the 0730 report I elected not to. I had an old copy of my price S/R handy and simply waited for the report. We spiked up, I had 113 26 as a very important price projection number and I tried to enter between 113 27 and 113 30 only getting filled at 113 30.
Since I was a little nervous about the trade I only took on 2 lots vs my customary 5 - 10 at this time. I had a target of 114 11 that I was shooting for. Obvioulsy we only got to 114 07 and started coming back down. I exited one at 114 05 and held the other.
I wrote that I wanted to buy at 113 24 - 113 26 if possible. For the first move down we only got to 114 00. Ordinarily on a spike up day, this is a perfect entry. I started taking on additional size at 114 01. We got as high as 114 04 and then for the next 30 minutes or so we flip flopped between 114 00 and 114 03.
As I posted, I didn't like the lack of follow through so I exited at break even. During this 30 min time frame after I exited at break even, my NN gave a buy so I went long ZB at 114 01. I ended up taking a small loss on that one when we started breaking down through 114 00.
At that point I decided to possibly call it a day and wait for the 0900 reports.
The 0900 reports came out taking price down to my stated 113 24 - 113 26 buy level. I even mentioned that I really wanted to go long but didn't have the time. That trade would have been good for 5 ticks depending on entry.
Now at 0915 - 0920 you had a choice to make. Do you bank on the breakout to test new the highs of the day or do you bank on what the market has been doing consistently recently, short at 113 31 looking for a failure of the breakout. I did not trade but personally, I would have shorted. First, the early morning spike and lack of follow through to the upside should have warned you. Second the 0900 reports weren't favorable. Third, read up on my double 00's observation.
That is it. Hopefully my wrap up of my activity is helpful.
Regarding not shorting at 114 00, I think that was too early to make a commitment to a reversal in trend for the day. In my opinion, the only trades today were long at a good entry off of the 0730 report, long at 113 25 off of the 0900 report and finally short at the BO failure at 113 31.