Bond Trader 2006

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0742 CST

Look to take some or all profit at 112 08 or better.

I think there is room to test yesterday's lows so I may hold some or all until there.
 
Out at 112 12 on 4th contract from above.

Sold 2 ZB at 112 13 on the 0751 3 min bar.

Out of 2 ZB at 112 10 due to uncertainty. I still think it is going down, but now, I've had two successful trades and I've made my money for the day.
 
Quote from zbtrader:

Quote from johnpinochet:

Per above plan, I'm standing aside .... [/QUOTE

At this point, what price action will make you go either long or short?]
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At 0750 CST, shorting at 112 15 if reached or 112 13 which was reached, was a no brainer to go short based on yesterday's posted money-in-the-bank trades. It was a key short from yesterday.

The problem is that the lack of follow through is puzzling, hence I may quit unless we move through a key S/R number.

I would trade cautiously for the remainder of the morning hours. If I trade it will be with minimal size and either side of the market.
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This will be my last post for today.

As I said, I was going to be cautious. I'm not glued to the screen so I put in an alert for the 112 15 to 112 16 area and did other things.

Now, at 0836 on the 3min bar we hit that area. What to do? The key is the 0812 and the 0821 bar. Look at the positive buy volume! Had I been watching then I would have went long at 112 13 with a stop at 112 09, looking for a test of the 0733 high. Unfortunately I had to take the price at 112 16, with a stop at 112 11.

I bought 2 ZB at that time frame and put in a sell at 112 21 and walked away.

In keeping with the whole week, today has been a very easy day to trade with no head fakes so far. This is my third successful trade of the day. Per my journal, I'm done for today.

I may look at the ES or at Corn just out of curiosity.

Good luck.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

At 0750 CST, shorting at 112 15 if reached or 112 13 which was reached, was a no brainer to go short based on yesterday's posted money-in-the-bank trades. It was a key short from yesterday.

The problem is that the lack of follow through is puzzling, hence I may quit unless we move through a key S/R number.

I would trade cautiously for the remainder of the morning hours. If I trade it will be with minimal size and either side of the market.
More...

What would you consider as key S/R? Recent intraday high/low? Fibonacci derived from recent daily chart high/low? Your numbers seems to be quite accurate.
 
Quote from zbtrader:

What would you consider as key S/R? Recent intraday high/low? Fibonacci derived from recent daily chart high/low? Your numbers seems to be quite accurate.
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I look at the 5 min, 60 min, daily and weekly chart.

The weekly chart gives me an idea of where powerful S/R numbers are. I only look at 2 or 3 weekly bars that have prices close to today's price range.

The hourly chart tells me at a glance where the pivots are as well as important price levels for the past few days.

As each trading day goes by, I look at the 5 min chart and I write down price activity areas that seem significant.

Finally, my most important numbers of all are my price projection numbers. I'll throw all of the above numbers out in two seconds if I see a signficant price projection number coming up. 99% of the time though, my numbers line up reasonably well with the above.

112 15 to 112 16 was a price projection number. I knew something significant would happen there, I just didn't know what. Per my earlier post, I went long. In retrospect, had I had more time, I could have held out for the 113 04 area, but that is 20/20 hindsight. I take my 4 - 6 ticks when they are offered to me.

Fib is good but I don't use it. I believe my numbers are better. At least for me.
 
Interesting day. That selloff yesterday followed by the sharp reversal suggests to me we have another leg up coming to a theatre near you. Nice testing of the entire 112 zone.

I'm in a dangerous zone - in between systems and admittedly entering some trades without careful planned stops. Yesterday I did my normal spike trade just like you John, bot at 113 6/32 after the spike. then only to see a drop past pre spike levels. Turning into position trade mode instead of scalper, I bot 112 25/32 and 112 17/32. Tough day. Decided to hold the position overnight and closed out avg 112 29/32. All ended well with no losses, but seriously I need to set my stops and follow through. I'll chalk it up as luck this time - I'm not always so lucky, as things go. Can't take this.

:(

Tough to not know if I'd rather scalp or take positions... Regardless I knew a pass through 112 would've been an exit signal and would've taken it. I'm getting a little tired of this countertrend trading, though.
 
Thanks John.

When you have some time, can you go over some examples of how you pick and use the S/R and how to derive the projection numbers?

Thanks again, your journal has been very helpful.
 
0732 CST Bought 2 ZB at 113 30. I was looking to get in at a better price so was waiting for a pullback to 113 25 but it never happened.

My forecast is that we will see 115 00 to 115 19 before we approach 112 22 again. Hold on for a wild ride. I'll be buying all dips until then.

114 11 is a possible short term profit target. I only wish I had gone up to a 10 lot, but considering it was the first important 0730 report after the holiday I decided to go with really small size.
 
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