Bond Trader 2006

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I got out of the 1 ZB pre-market this morning at 112 20 for a 6 tick profit. Not bad for a day trade but miserable for a position trade.

Not to worry, this week has been remarkable from a day trading standpoint. Today in particular is phenomenal.

Got a few ticks off of the 0735 5 min bar, but the incredible trade today was going short off of the 0905 bar as we broke through earlier support established on the 0740 bar between 112 18 and 112 14. That was a 10 tick trade right there depending on entry. I started going short at 112 17 and rode it down to 112 10 and 112 07.
 

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not my thread, but I'm seeing a nice little range on zb -- 112'10 --> 112'25 ...

Having trouble breaking through the top end today on somewhat bullish news. Anyone loading up?
 
Quote from Surdo:

Why are you "loading up" if they seem to be hitting up against resistance?
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I was long actually in at 112 '17 avg ...

Looks like the market has a tendency to push through (as it did).
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

I was long actually in at 112 '17 avg ...

Looks like the market has a tendency to push through (as it did).
More...

Nice trade!

Next time call the entry before it is in your favor 1/2 a point Bro if you are going to hi-jack someone else's real time journal.


:D
 
Quote from Surdo:

Nice trade!

Next time call the entry before it is in your favor 1/2 a point Bro if you are going to hi-jack someone else's real time journal.


:D
More...

Its a long story, but I made the entry yesterday averaging in ... First I was short (seeing the downspike) 112'17.. then I saw trading going quickly through 112'20, so I switched position to long and averaged in a little bit (14 + 16) and made it a position trade. Exited today 112'30 (3) and 113 3/32 (1).

Lucked out on bad economic news ...
 
I'm back with an observation.

Days like today, Friday 06 October 2006, you absolutely, positively must get right. It's OK to mess up the chop days. It's OK to mess up on the second half of a "V" day. The one thing you must never do is mess up a day like today.

The reason why is that today is a redemption day. It makes back any losses from earlier. It is a stair step down day. You should only short a day like today.

Here is my take:

Given the price action all week long of constantly touching the same high and low for 4 days in a row, and given the reports today, and given the suspicious lack of follow through to the upside on Wednesday of this week, you knew that something had to happen today. Which way didn't matter.

So, here are the trades:

0730 Nothing. Only a madman trades this bar.

0735 If you were so inclined, you could have shorted the spike back up from the spike down. You don't have to be crazy to take the trade but you do have to have a strong stomach.

0745 A trade of the day. Short with your eyes closed.

0820 to 0830 Another trade of the day. Short with your eyes closed and your hand's tied behind your back. You're shorting after prices have fallen beneath yesterday's low and are coming back to kiss yesterday's low. The low gives price the kiss of death.

0850 With two excellent trades of the day, you could call it quits, or press your luck. Short cautiously.

0930 The above trade was OK. You could call it quits with three winners in a row or press your luck. Short cautiously.

4 winners in a row. Call it a day. Go home.

What did I do? Doesn't matter as I am not posting real-time ... but ... I got lucky on the 0735 trade for 4 ticks and then made a killing on the 0745 and 0820 short trades mentioned above. Per my journal I know I'm only good for 2 - 3 in a row so that was it for me.
 
Here's the 5 min 30 year chart.

By the way, another reason to be cautious about how many trades to take on a day like today? It is a 32 tick movement day. Look back over the last year of trading. How many times do we continue on for 64 ticks in the 30 year? Almost never. For the last year, if the 30 year moves 32 ticks in one day, it is time to be thankful for your profits and quit. You run the risk of getting caught up in chop. Imagine a hockey stick and you're the poor fool trying to short the tail end of the stick that makes contact with the puck.
 

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