Bond Trader 2006

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from scriabinop23:

volume was high. what was the catalyst?
More...

No idea. If you look back at my postings I think in February of this year for my first "V" day of the year, you'll see my puzzlement regarding what the market was doing. On that day, I think it was 14 Feb 2006, I traded incredibly well for the down move, and then did not participate at all in the up move. I reinforced a rule that I had learned a long time ago. As a matter of fact, another poster wrote the same thing in response to my question about a news service.

"Everything you need to know is in the chart."
 
Trade of the day was going long between 0730 and 0745.

As for now. I haven't taken any positions since the first and only trade of the day. I'm looking to go long again, but I may just stop until the FOMC.

The reason why it might be best to stop is the market probably (I'm guessing here) won't do much of anything since we already had a decent move up. This reminds me a lot of last week Friday. Decent move up, followed by a Sine wave within a narrow range, and then later in the day, the down move. Perhaps we'll have something similar today?
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

No idea. If you look back at my postings I think in February of this year for my first "V" day of the year, you'll see my puzzlement regarding what the market was doing. On that day, I think it was 14 Feb 2006, I traded incredibly well for the down move, and then did not participate at all in the up move. I reinforced a rule that I had learned a long time ago. As a matter of fact, another poster wrote the same thing in response to my question about a news service.

"Everything you need to know is in the chart."
More...

perhaps its traders getting to work just wanting to get in early speculating on a rate pause and bullish (for bond markets) language.
 
Commercials were active at the highs yesterday. Today's break of yest high wasn't on impressive volume, but I suspect that is normal considering the FOMC. A clue will be to see if they can keep it above yesterday's high and perhaps make periodic news highs before the report. Yesterday volume was pretty strong.
 
Nice 0842 CST short on the 3 min MACD as well. You would have had to wait 9 minutes and your entry could have been very bad, or very good. That is the problem. You need to couple it with other tools.
 
Quote from sharp10:

John, what else would you use with the chart you posted.
Thanks.
More...

CCI, S/R, Ergodic Indicator, or some type of home grown neural net indicators.

I use a range of neural net indicators. Mostly some type of linear regression of % change in one of the following: O, H, L, C.

Earlier in the year I used a CCI neural net as well.

The sky is the limit. By the way, I suppose you might be able to couple the MACD with market delta. That might work very well.
 
Does anyone recall when the market reacted for the last FOMC? Right at the scheduled report time? I seem to recall that the market rocketed up right on the second the meeting was scheduled vs reacting as the meeting progressed.

Any comments on when we will see the spike moves up or down? My guess is right at 1315 CST or slightly before then as someone always gets a leak.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top