Bond Trader 2006

Status
Not open for further replies.
Time cycle coming up at 1135 CST. Expect something to happen.

1126 CST Major divergence in 5 min CCI, as well as NN cycle indicator. Look for pullback. May only be to 106 10, so personally, I would not short it.

106 10 = Tipping Hand price
 
I have to say that it really is looking like a short here. If you do short, short at 106 13 with a target of 106 08 or 106 09 or 106 10 (most likely). Most importantly short 1/4 to 1/2 your normal size. It really is stupid to short today.
 
Quick, somebody wake me up, this can only be a dream. Firing on all cylinders and I'm not even participating. I hope someone reading this is making a killing.

Man, I feel like I'm lost in some existential Gabriel García Márquez novel.
 
Basta! No puedo continuar!

A little humour in honor of a great novelist.

I'm done for the day. Any attempt to trade now since I got back, carries the risk of being wrong and ending the week / month on a not so positive note.

All the great moves today were earlier.

Good luck!
 
Here is the second half of today's chart. Notice the stair step pattern. Notice how shorting the market was a stupid idea. Notice how you could have bought as the market was approaching key Price Projection numbers and held on for a 4 - 6 tick move at each point.
 

Attachments

Monday 03 July 2006

Today we have the following:

Construction Spending
0900 CST

ISM Mfg Index
0900 CST

Today is the day before a major US holiday. What this means is that market action will probably be subdued. Today is the kind of day where you should do one of two things: trade the early to mid-morning, or take the day off. My gut feeling is to take the day off. Any time you have a glorious day like we did on Friday, the next trading day after that, especially the day before a major US holiday, will probably be a let down.

Price projection numbers:

106 28
106 20

106 15
106 03

Tipping Hand Prices:

106 10
105 20
105 12

My bias is to the upside. I'll be looking to buy at a good price.

Long term (weeks or months out) I still think we will revisit the lows.
 
Sold 2 ZB's 106 15 0732 CST.

Quick trade. Looking for 106 10 as a first target.

I want to be a buyer today.

0755 CST is an important time cycle.
 
0738 CST Neural net cycle indicator just gave the strangest signal. It took a nose dive. I've never seen it take such a sharp angle down.

I've canceled my profit target limit order at 106 10. I'm going to let this one ride a bit.

UPDATE
0740 CST Geesh! I've never seen it do this before, the angle is well....let's just say it's steep! You wouldn't want to ski it.

0742 CST The prudent thing to do is take one off at 106 10 and let the other one ride per my usual rule of thumb.
 
0745 CST Consider closing trade at whatever price you are happy with around 106 10 or higher.

NN is still taking a dive but market profile is showing strength in the 10 year. FWIW, I rate the NN much higher than market profile.

The above mix match usually (but not always) indicates that the move may not last.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top