Bond Trader 2006

Status
Not open for further replies.
Quote from luckyhonda:

Hi John,

What's the different between your NN indicators and the regular indicators?

luc
More...

NN indicators are developed on my neural net application based on my studies.

The regular indicators running on my Ensign software are simply studies available with Ensign.

Bottom line, a neural net CCI indicator would be adapted to fit what the conditions of the market were/are. An Ensign CCI is simply whatever input you want to put into it.
 
0921 CST Out at 105 23. Price coming back to entry. Out with 1 tick profit per contract. Could go lower, but NN's are just starting to turn up. Not enough to go long, but enough to make me not want to hold.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

NN indicators are developed on my neural net application based on my studies.

The regular indicators running on my Ensign software are simply studies available with Ensign.

Bottom line, a neural net CCI indicator would be adapted to fit what the conditions of the market were/are. An Ensign CCI is simply whatever input you want to put into it.
More...

So the parameters to CCI would be changing depending on the current market condition--like direction, volatility, etc?
 
I've had a lot of chop on my signals today. Signals aren't clear cut like they were yesterday. Yesterday was textbook in case you want to save one for future reference.

It is 2 hours into the trading day, I've had another low end loss today, not enough to knock my profit from yesterday, so I think now is a good time to quit.

I'm expecting a great day tomorrow with plenty of price movement.
 
0929 CST NN's both turned up. I'm not going to take the trade as I'm not confident about my signals today. I think it is a reflection of the wait and see approach prior to the FOMC meeting.

0934 CST Remember from the past 3 weeks, the ZB's can and will stay in a narrow 3-4 tick range for 3 - 4 hours. This is especially true on a day like today.
 
FYI, trade of the day occurred between 0615 and 0630 today. At that time bonds were going down and were about to hit 105 12. From my posts as well as from others mention, you knew that 105 12 was a very important number for support. You could have bought at that point with a stop at 105 08.

I can't trade that time, but looking over the chart, that was the one and only no brainer of the day. Everything else had risk. Buying around 105 12 had virtually zero risk as we've been in a range all week and the market still needed to wait and see what the FOMC meeting would state. They really couldn't take it much lower.

I will go out on a limb and say that buying at 105 12 was the trade of the month for June 2006.

I see my warnings about narrow ranges, a spike up or down and not wanting to trade anywhere near the FOMC meeting were quite accurate. Glad I quit when I did.

I wonder how much money was lost during the spike up at approximately 1300 CST?
 
Friday 30 June 2006

Today we have the following:

Personal Income and Outlays
0730 CST

Consumer Sentiment
0845 CST

NAPM-Chicago
0900 CST

I think we are through with the narrow range and the random spikes for today. I would treat the 0730 report as I do any report, although report spike movement may be tempered due to rate hike already being announced.

Here is my call for today. No chop, and a steady methodical stair-step rise or fall depending on the digestion of yesterday's events. If I were to guess, I would say the bonds will head higher today, Friday 30 June 2006. Assuming this is correct, I will look to go long near my key price projection numbers plus a confirmation from the neural net cycle indicator. Ideally, I would like to go long near pullbacks to the levels mentioned below.

Price projection numbers remain the same as yesterday's:

106 15
106 03

105 24
105 12
105 03

As I mentioned yesterday, today I'm counting on a beautiful day with a wide range.

One final thing to note is that the market has tipped its hand regarding where important price points are. The time period I mentioned about 1300 yesterday was a tipping of the hand so to speak. I see a high price of 106 10 which may be +/- 1 tick. It is great when the market movers accidentally (or maybe it is all part of the plan) tell us something about where they see important price points. 106 10, 105 20, and 105 12 will become lines in the sand for now. Remember these three prices.

Tipping Hand Prices:

106 10
105 20
105 12
 
Quote from 0008:

BTW, how many % have you gained in the last few years trading ZN/ZB etc?

I am very interested in trading IR futures(much more than the stocks/index futures.) But I don't know any individual trader who are making a living out of them. Are IR mainly for the institutions?

Thank for your comments.
More...


I've traded bond futures off and on since 1994, but like anyone will tell you it takes a long time to even begin to be successful. A long time. A lot of study, and a lot of hard work are involved.

As far as percent gained in the last few years, you are making a lot of assumptions, that may or may not be necessarily correct. Bottom line, I don't trade full-time. It only appears that way because I live overseas and I am able to trade for a few hours in the evening. I consider trading a part-time endeavour. I trade with real money and to the best of my recollection, I've never paper traded. Ever. Maybe once back in 1994, but I can't remember. This means that an account loss is considered the price of one's education. Let us pretend for a moment that I were to tell you that the last few year's gains have been nice. You must understand that isn't the complete picture. Not so nice is also a part of the picture to get to the last few years.

In any event, there is so much involved here, to include the uncertainties of psychology, that until I have everything down pat, I'll have to say that I would NOT recommend this to anyone.

Think about the math for a moment. Let's say you make an above average income with your existing job. At which point do you give up your steady job to trade full-time? Can you trade the contract size necessary to replace your income? Can you remove funds from your account monthly to pay for your living expense? Can you do this consistently, month after month, year after year until you're 65? Can you manage the stress of never really knowing if your success will continue? What about family? What about your physical health? Can you gaurauntee that you will have opimum physical and mental health to trade?

A whole book could be written about the above. I don't think the issue is interest rate futures or index futures. It is about trading in general.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top