Bond Trader 2006

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Out at 105 23.

Good time to call it a day. Met my daily profit target and I have two excellent calls in a row.

To be successful at daytrading you must learn to find your sweet spot and stick with it.
 
Quote from 0008:

Will you miss some(or even quite a lot) trades by using Limit order?

And why are you more interested in the ZB than ZN? I am a newbie and feel ZN is a safer play! :)
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Bonds were the first futures contract I traded back in 1994. I've always traded the 30 year, off and on over the years.

I can honestly say that over the past year, I've had that Matrix moment where Neo sees the binary code making up his world.

When you start to see that, the hair on the back of your neck will stand straight up, doors will open and slam shut somewhere in your house, and ... Just kidding ... about the doors ... the hair part is true though.

The above Matrix observation ties into my brief mention of a technique I use whereby I ask myself a question about where I see the trade or market going.

I like the ZN too as it currently has greater volume and I hit my limit in a second or two versus waiting for the ZB's. I have no problem with my limit orders. If I feel strongly enough about a trade I simply adjust the price.

Finally, even though I achieve those moments of clarity where the target is acquired, it doesn't always work, i.e. Monday and Tuesday of this week.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

Looking to buy 4 ZB at 105 21, but will settle for 105 23.
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Remember my observation pages ago about the ability to place an initial order for what the real target will be, but adjusting upwards?

Re-reading my previous post I see I'm coming across as some sort of Zen / Kung Fu trading master. It really isn't the message I'm trying to convey there.

99% of what I do involves complex analysis and data mining of large data sets in the terabyte range. What I'm trying to express is that at some point in time, you begin to see the data in strange ways, almost like synesthesia.

I've reached that point, so on occasion, but not always, and not consistently, I utilize this vague target acquistion technique I'm talking about. It really isn't rocket science, and it simply revolves around a question and a statement of purpose.
 
Thursday 29 June 2006

Today we have the following:

GDP
0730 CST

Jobless Claims
0730 CST

Help Wanted Index
0900 CST

FOMC Announcement
1315 CST

Once again, from yesterday, expect anything to happen. By anything I mean prices could move methodically in one direction and then spike in the reverse direction 12 ticks or more. I would not want to be in a trade anwhere near 1315 CST.

Price projection numbers remain the same as yesterday's:

106 15
106 03

105 24
105 12
105 03

I have no bias. Check the journal titled ES Journal for a take on "NOT" raising rates during the announcement.

I'll trade quickly today, looking for only 3 - 6 ticks per trade. Too dangerous to do otherwise.

Tomorrow, Friday, I'm counting on a beautiful day with a wide range.
 
0732 CST News seems to be having no effect.

If I were to guess, I'd say prepare to short. No commitment yet.

0737 CST Is the lack of movement indicative of a small 3 - 4 tick range day?
 
0746 CST Sold 1 ZB 105 20.

Trying to sell 4 ZN 104 055.

Will try to sell additional ZB's between 105 20 and 105 23.

0748 CST Sold 1 ZB 105 20 and Sold 4 ZN 104 055.

This trade doesn't quite feel right. NN cycle indicator still pointing up. It is my missing link in a perfect sell setup.

UPDATE
0754 Target is 105 15 on the ZB and equivalent on ZN. NN cycle indicator turned negative. Would like to see more of a slope down.
 
Something may happen new 30 minute high or new 30 minute low here with the 0805 CST 5 minute bar, i.e. above 105 23 or below 105 19.

UPDATE 0805 CST
So we'll wait for the last 0805 T&S.

UPDATE 0806 CST
OK wrong!
 
0809 CST out of ZB 105 23 and out of ZN 104 070.

Hmmmmm .... so, I'm off by 5 minute, 0809 to be exact on calling for a new 30 minute market High/Low.
 
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