Bond Trader 2006

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john,

I was surprised that yesterday you didn't get out at 16/17 and also when it came back to your entry price at 19. I was further surprised that you actually held it overnight. That said, lots of people will rather trade places with you for the last 2 weeks performance. And today, excluding the overnight trade, I think you are doing great, especially with that reversal at the top.

luc
 
Quote from luckyhonda:

john,

I was surprised that yesterday you didn't get out at 16/17 and also when it came back to your entry price at 19. I was further surprised that you actually held it overnight. That said, lots of people will rather trade places with you for the last 2 weeks performance. And today, excluding the overnight trade, I think you are doing great, especially with that reversal at the top.

luc
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luc,

Thanks for your kind words. As I read and re-read your paragraph. I have nothing to add, other than....I'm surprised too!!!

For anyone interested in really getting to the heart of the matter regarding the psychology of trading, file away my entries on 03 February 2006 and my entries for today. Lessons to be learned! By reading you'll get a feel for what will ( or may) go through your mind, and hopefully today, I proved that I can reverse rather than stand aside like I did on 03 Feb.

John
 
Wednesday 28 June 2006

Today we have the following:

MBA Purchase Applications
0600 CST

EIA Petroleum Status Report
0930 CST

5-Year Note Auction
1200 CST

FOMC Meeting Begins
1330 CST

I don't need to tell you that today could be tricky. Expect anything to happen. By anything I mean prices could move methodically in one direction and then spike in the reverse direction 12 ticks or more.

Price projection numbers remain the same as yesterday's:

106 15
106 03

105 24
105 12
105 03

My bias is long.

FYI, two losing days in a row. A loss on Monday, and another loss on Tuesday due to the overnight trade.
 
I'm watching the ZB's carefully as I base all my calculations off of ZB price. I will be comfortable exiting all ZN's at any ZN price that is equivalent to ZB price of 105 26 to 105 23.

FYI, this trade should have been initiated around 0700 to 0705 CST per my NN RVI and NN cycle indicator. I wasn't at my screen to take the trade at that time.
 
Thinking about going long. NN's are started to taper to upside. No reports coming out until 0930 and it is a minor report. Everyone is waiting for meeting.

UPDATE:
0756 CST Heavy sell volume ... hold.
 
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