Man, the market has been very predictable this week, trading off of the numbers.
Recap 10 February 2006
Based on the above you knew that an important report was coming out at 0730. There was a long trade starting at 0630 that you could have exited at 0725 for a 7 tick profit. But let's throw that out, as my posting and my plan thus far has been trades starting at 0720.
0730 The report comes out. What happens? Nothing.
0740 Short 2 ZB's at 113 10. Target is 113 01/02.
0800 Closed out 2 at 113 09. Never let a trade that goes in your predicted direction turn into a loss.
At this point I decided to carefully reconsider my short bias. Why? First, 113 05 held. Second, prices came right back to my entry.
0815 Long 2 ZB's at 113 09. Target 113 16.
0855 Close above at 113 13.
0930 Short 4 ZB's at 113 10. This was primarily based on the fact that we made the following attempts at highs and failed: 0740, 0850 and 0915. Target is 113 05/01.
0950 Close all of above at 113 05. NN CCI starting to look positive.
1000 I watched price bounce off of 113 01 at 1000, but I couldn't take the long trade there. It just didn't feel right. NN CCI was definitely positive at 1000. Would have been a trade good for 4 - 6 ticks, with a target of 113 10/11.
1015 Now hitting resistance established between 0755 and 0815. Would love to go short around 113 11, but now need to keep this current level in mind as resistance due to price activity earlier.
1015 - 1040 Rectangular range established. 113 08 is the high and 113 05 is the low.
1045 Short 4 ZB's at 113 05. Thoughts are that we will test 113 01 at least. Price activity is weak. NN CCI is very weak.
1055 Close out 3 ZB's at 113 01. Holding 1 for possible lower prices.
1100 We've kissed 112 28. We've broken through that very important number of 113 01. I'm essentially done for the day, and will not take on any more positions, but I'll continue to hold the 1 ZB for possible further action. If we go back above 113 01, I'll exit.
1145 Closed final position at 112 25. Done for the day. Was it worth a wait of 45 minutes? Definitely not. I made an additional 8 ticks (113 01 to 112 25), but for me, the ability to walk away an hour earlier at 1055 is priceless. Less stress. More time for my other interests. The opportunity to close out at 112 28 occurred again at 1120, so that should have been the ideal time to close.