Bond Trader 2006

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Quote from Bernard111:

The panic for the TICS data (foreign treasuries purchases cut by half vs. previous month -"Net holdings of Treasury notes, corporate bonds, stocks and other financial assets increased $32.9 billion, down from June's revised $75.1 billion and smallest gain since May last year" ) kepts some traders and economists busy for half an hour or at the most until WS opening..then they begain cover shorts and squaring positions ahead of PPI and FOMC.
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I agree with the above, but what do you think of this bloomberg article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=awboIY8A_blE&refer=bond#

***SNIP***

Japan Can't Get Enough Treasuries; Sees Fed Controlling Prices

By Wes Goodman

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Suddenly, the Japanese can't get enough government securities.

Kokusai Asset Management Co., which runs the world's second-biggest bond mutual fund, Daiwa Asset Management Co. and Fuji Investment Management Co. are increasing holdings of U.S. government securities, expecting the 11-week rally in Treasuries to continue.

***SNIP***
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

If I had anything to base a decision on, maybe I would consider it for a second or two, but then I would remember what has happened more than once recently where prior to the FOMC I and others were leaning one way, only to watch as the market moved significantly against us. Thank God for stops!

No overnight positions for me until after the FOMC. Tuesday I'll be looking for quick 4 - 6 tick trades. Wednesday I'm looking to make larger trades.
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exactly.. sure, they'll pause, but something of Mr. Ben's language will of course surprise the markets.
 
Just wondering what you guys think of this analysis (ZBs)

No upside momentum until 111.07.
Bears have to take 109.25 to get things started.
I'm incline to scalp longs around 110.05 with a Major level @110.27

Thanks for your inputs.
 
Posting this at 2340 CST on Monday 18 September 2006:

Tuesday 19 September 2006

Price Projection Numbers

111 24
110 12
109 01

Important numbers from the last couple of weeks

111 08
111 04
110 28
110 21
110 08
110 01
109 29
10925

My bias is neutral for today.

Here are the reports:

ICSC-UBS Store Sales
0645 CST

Housing Starts
0730 CST

Producer Price Index
0730 CST

Redbook
0755 CST

State Street Investor Confidence Index
1000 CST

I'll be looking to make my decision for today based on price action at 0730 through 0800. A lot of valuable topics have been discussed on this forum, especially some interesting things since this past Friday.
 
Looking to go long multiple contracts on ZB's at 110 25 or better. Entry was 110 22 or better unfortunately. Looks like we may have finished a solid 4 tick profit move.
 
Long 4 ZB's 110 27....bad entry / late entry. Watch closely. Totally missed on an easy 5 - 6 tick trade!

UPDATE
0757 Get ready to bail. Need to see a run on stops. Hopefully to 111 01.

0758 OK, new highs in the ZN. Don't let a profit become a loss!
 
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