Bond Trader 2006

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Quote from johnpinochet:

Today we have two economic reports to deal with:

Durable Goods Orders 7:30 CST 8:30 ET

Jobless Claims 7:30 CST 8:30 ET

Of the two above reports, traders will probably pay most attention to the durable goods report.

Another fundamental note to make on yesterday is that yesterday's two-year note sale did not go off well. Apparently there is concern about the next FOMC meetings as well as supply coming in next month.

Yesterday, I was surprised to see that we hit a low of 113 01. This indicates rather aggressive selling, obviously. Just look at the chart to see. Yesterday falls into a classic pattern that I call a stair step down trend day. There really is no choppiness to see in yesterday's activity in the 5 minute chart. For an example of a choppy day see Monday's and Tuesday's chart.

Initial important price levels for today:

Right off the bat I must emphasize that 113 01 is very important. Watch this number closely. If we bounce off of it, there may be a long trade to 113 10 => 113 16 => 113 22.

If we break through 113 01, there may be a short trade to 112 30 => 112 21.

Based on yesterday's chart, and based on the fact that Monday and Tuesday traded in a fairly narrow range, I'm going to go with another downside day today. Initial morning trades for the first 1 - 2 hours will be biased to the downside. If possible I'd like to go short anywhere on a move up to 113 10, with the exception of the minutes preceeding and immediately after the report. You have to be incredibly quick to trade immediately after a report.

In conclusion, on the highside:

113 22
113 16
113 10

And on the low side:

113 01
112 30
112 21

Outlier high:




113 25 => 113 28

Outlier low:

112 09
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nice call on 112 21 support:D
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

Now might be a good short with a tight stop at 112 31.

Time is 08:12 CST. Price is 112 26 - 112 27.
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what would be your target? 112 09
 
Filled at 112 27.

Target is a re-test of lows. Tight stop. Do not let this one trade against you! Use a tight stop. Accept the 4 tick loss if necessary!
 
0755 - 0820 We are in a tight rectangular range of 112 25 <=> 112 29.

Now price tells us what the next move will be.

We may get stopped out, but after the 0730 move, and per my earlier pre-open post, I'm biased to the short side.
 
Consider exiting. My posting is distracting me from trading...so no more minute by minute updates.

Final post, consider exiting with small loss at 112 29. Successful re-test of 112 25 112 26 will lead to new short order OR test of 113 01 => 113 03 will lead to new short order..

No more posts for awhile, too distracting.
 
Anyone using pyrapoint? Pretty amazing isn't it, the way it nailed the 0745 low, and this 0835 move?

No, I don't base my numbers off of it nor do I base my observations previously posted off of it. I merely keep it up to indicate a possible time turning point, not a price turning point.
 
I didn't get filled on my stop. As my neural network CCI is pointing down, and as the kiss of 112 31 is close enough to the important 113 01 number, I'm just going to let it stand for now.

A failure to penetrate 112 25 soon is indicative of the need to stand aside, i.e. exit trade for small loss or small profit, depending on your entry. My entry was 112 27.
 
If anyone looks at Fib numbers, 108 250 on the 10 year is important and 112 23 on the 30 year.

I don't look at Fib nor do I base my numbers off of Fib, but it is interesting to note the level, especially on the 10 year.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

Anyone using pyrapoint? Pretty amazing isn't it, the way it nailed the 0745 low, and this 0835 move?

No, I don't base my numbers off of it nor do I base my observations previously posted off of it. I merely keep it up to indicate a possible time turning point, not a price turning point.
More...

what timeframe are you using for pyra?
 
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