bond supply

S

steeldust

hi. is the bond markets ignoring the supply that will be coming out? to me the supply is rather large or is it? or are bonds just getting a safe haven bid and thats that.
 
It's all about who is buying. TIC (Net Foreign Security Purchases) data comes out tomorrow. Regardless of issuance, if foreigners slow their purchasing of US gov't debt the market will start selling off.
 
Sellers are on the sideline, waiting for a barrage of data and Fed events to be over before selling massively in early February. By that time TA charts will probably show a megaphone or a double-top formation and at that point, we will either have the first piece of bad news triggering the sell-off if the Fed comments on concerns about the recent run up in oil prices or we will have the same old buzz about the Fed being at the end of its tightening cycle but with no more effect on prices. Of course, there are other possible scenarios but I don’t see them on the radar.
 
Quote from McCloud:

Article: Treasuries May Fall as $100 Billion of Debt Overwhelms Buyers

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=azrTz0.O0E44&refer=top_world_news
More...
I think I'll start paying more attention to the auction schedule. The dates in the article that are identified as potentially difficult days for the bond market are the same dates I have already stored in my calendar of price drops. I know it's premature to say this but (what the heck) I think that we will have a bottom on Feb. 9th when, based on the article, 60% of the bonds will be sold.

Thanks for the article.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top