Bond rally nearing an end?

Quote from gharghur2:

Still short ... and not discouraged by the volatility.
Retest 113-17 ???
It's a bull market in rates, ya know! :)
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I would feel a lot more comfortable with my position had I gotten in on friday, not a week back, it's just such a waste of time-value, I coulda been short some more oil... Now we need to retest highs past 113, so ya, kinda pissy...

Just came back from skiing, seems like winter's back with a vengence!!
 
Quote from bali_survivor:

According to the picture we may "muddle along" for another number of years in a sideways market.

:cool:
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It might ... but all the other terms are rising
If the 30yr rallies to 114 I'm out.
But it did make new lows last week before rallying, so the trend is still down.
 
Quote from landboy:

What happened to all the steepeners?!! A week ago all I heard was the insti's playing the 10-30s, and within a couple days all I hear is they're bailing on me!! I'm not one to break against the trend, but this is ridiculous.... There should be a reasonable resistence level especially at the 30 levels, but I guess after the last auction all bets are off for more volatility...

Have a nice long weekend!
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Once the steepening trend kicks in it should last 18-30 months. To try and pick the turning point would be stoopid. Esp. w/ a new Fed that still needs to establish some cred.

I've put a 2-10 steepener trade on in an IB papertrade account ('cause FI spreads are a new animal for me) and the paper acct is good help remaining patient, and learn how it moves. The economy is going to begin rolling over at the same time the steepen trade kicks in.

You watch. Once the steeper trade kicks in, everyone will be shittin' their pants trying to short the 'next' equities rally. Minting it on the monster wave requires patience for the set-up. This deserves a journal of its own ....
 
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

Once the steepening trend kicks in it should last 18-30 months. To try and pick the turning point would be stoopid. Esp. w/ a new Fed that still needs to establish some cred.

I've put a 2-10 steepener trade on in an IB papertrade account ('cause FI spreads are a new animal for me) and the paper acct is good help remaining patient, and learn how it moves. The economy is going to begin rolling over at the same time the steepen trade kicks in.

You watch. Once the steeper trade kicks in, everyone will be shittin' their pants trying to short the 'next' equities rally. Minting it on the monster wave requires patience for the set-up. This deserves a journal of its own ....
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Great! Please start one...and let me know if you do, okay?
 
Quote from spersky:

what is a steeper trade?


thanks
Steve
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The yield curve will steepen. We've just recently inverted, and have been on a flattening/inverting trend for ... about two years? It is about to reverse likely within the next 6-18 months. Historically the reverse trend lasts ~2+ years.
 
Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

The yield curve will steepen. We've just recently inverted, and have been on a flattening/inverting trend for ... about two years? It is about to reverse likely within the next 6-18 months. Historically the reverse trend lasts ~2+ years.
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Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

The yield curve will steepen. We've just recently inverted, and have been on a flattening/inverting trend for ... about two years? It is about to reverse likely within the next 6-18 months. Historically the reverse trend lasts ~2+ years.
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Agree with you. I find it a lot easier to predict the short end than the long end however.

I'm playing this one from the short end right now with floating rate instruments. Once the rate hikes slow, I'll go long short & ultrashort bonds and start to think about shorting the long bond again.

I agree that the steepener will happen (not for a little while though - 6 months is my guess but that's as good as anyone elses) but not sure that much of the movement will be on the long end. However, if it goes... look out!
 
Quote from spersky:

what is a steeper trade?


thanks
Steve
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Go to the CBOT website and do some reading on the TUT (2yr-10yr) spread. It allows you to trade the change in shape of the yield curve ....
 
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