Bond rally nearing an end?

Quote from mcurto:

Steve, you are not alone in buying 30yr puts, you have the Japanese on your side. A large Asian account (believed to be for Nomura) purchased about 15,000 March 112 puts last week from 21 to 26 ticks and today bought 10,000 March 111 puts for 27 ticks. This whole large down move started when the Asian accounts began to buy puts <font color=red>before their holidays</font> and fiscal year ends (generally lower participation from them in January). Would imagine they are <font color=red>protecting long futures/cash positions</font> with these options.
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That would make sense since people tend to liquidate or cover their positions ahead of holidays, but that would also indicate a <i>long</i> bias among those folks.
 
Quote from steveosborne:

That would make sense since people tend to liquidate or cover their positions ahead of holidays, but that would also indicate a <i>long</i> bias among those folks.
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Guess we're the only ones with a SHORT bias
 
I am glad I am a short bias; however a few painful lesson have taught me that bias means nothing. The market does not care what your bias is. It will just take your money either way.

Regards,
Steve
 
Quote from spersky:

I am glad I am a short bias; however a few painful lesson have taught me that bias means nothing. The market does not care what your bias is. It will just take your money either way.

Regards,
Steve
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I plan on filling my pockets with some more of them Asian accounts. :-)
 
Yes, they have a LONG bias, but they are trying to get the 10yr and 30yr issues to cheapen up before the auction. Wouldn't you want to get in at the lowest possible levels duing a massive Treasury refunding, especially when you own half our debt? Thus, they buy 30yr puts as they let the current issues drift lower into the auction next week. Not to mention it seems like this Friday's nonfarms is setup to be a blowout (numerous lower claims numbers, big revisions to November, wouldnt' be surprised if December the same).
 
Quote from mcurto:

Yes, they have a LONG bias, but they are trying to get the 10yr and 30yr issues to cheapen up before the auction. Wouldn't you want to get in at the lowest possible levels duing a massive Treasury refunding, especially when you own half our debt? Thus, they buy 30yr puts as they let the current issues drift lower into the auction next week. Not to mention it seems like this Friday's nonfarms is setup to be a blowout (numerous lower claims numbers, big revisions to November, wouldnt' be surprised if December the same).
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Definitely a big factor in the current timing of events. Also, with data coming from Europe and Japan pointing to higher interest rates worldwide while the US government is issuing record amounts of debt, yields on bills and bonds need to go up now in order to avoid excessive volatility in foreign exchange markets.
 
Quote from spersky:

I am glad I am a short bias; however a few painful lesson have taught me that bias means nothing. The market does not care what your bias is. It will just take your money either way.

Regards,
Steve
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LOL Amen!
But it's always best to bet with the trend ...
 
Quote from mcurto:

Yes, they have a LONG bias, but they are trying to get the 10yr and 30yr issues to cheapen up before the auction. Wouldn't you want to get in at the lowest possible levels duing a massive Treasury refunding, especially when you own half our debt? Thus, they buy 30yr puts as they let the current issues drift lower into the auction next week. Not to mention it seems like this Friday's nonfarms is setup to be a blowout (numerous lower claims numbers, big revisions to November, wouldnt' be surprised if December the same).
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Music to the stock markets ears!
 
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