Bond rally nearing an end?

John,

The one point down move was yesterday. Was just pointing out that yield waves were starting to impulse. Don't call anything day to day :)

However, since this might be a third wave (having finished 1 - 2, 1 - 2) anything is possible, including another one point down day.

tony
 
gharghur2,

Interesting. I agree with you. I have an Outlier low at 112 09 as a possibility, but that was/is on a condition that we break decisively through 112 15, and so far we haven't.

John
 
Hybrid Thread
Tony, can you please elaborate on this. Did you think the market was going to stay inverted?
>As the Bond market continues to sell off, the worry of a yield curve inversion is beginning to dissipate,
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That is, did you think that long-term rates were going to stay below short term rates thru tax season?

Euro%24%20sea.jpg


I ask this because, trading spreads we see this normalization is about a month overdue.
 
Hi !

You got me there. I do not watch spreads, nor the rate inversion for that matter. Just watch individual markets, and in this arena only the 30 year bond rates.

I have the data to analyze the other terms, but have not done so, because I spend most of my time on stock indices: US and Foreign.

I looked casually at the Reuters CRB today and was shocked! It's nearly doubled since October 2001, and still heading higher. So much for those deflationist's scenarios.

With crude, gold and commodities in bull markets ... guess what's next? I'd imagine that spreads will begin to widen based on my little knowledge of the treasury market.

What do you think?
 
Quote from gharghur2:

I looked casually at the Reuters CRB today and was shocked! It's nearly doubled since October 2001, and still heading higher.
More...
As a reminder, the CRB Index is basically a proxy for oil prices. Last time I checked, about ahem... 10 years ago, oil was constituting about 70-75% of the index. A true commodity index is the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index because each commodity's weigth is based, if I remember well, on the commodity's volume of consumption in the world.
 
Quote from steveosborne:

As a reminder, the CRB Index is basically a proxy for oil prices. Last time I checked, about ahem... 10 years ago, oil was constituting about 70-75% of the index. A true commodity index is the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index because each commodity's weigth is based, if I remember well, on the commodity's volume of consumption in the world.
More...

Hi Steve,

The Goldman Sachs index:

Table 1: GSCI Components and Dollar Weights (%)(January 26, 2006)

Energy 74.79
Crude Oil 30.90
Brent Crude Oil 14.40
Unleaded Gas 7.59
Heating Oil 8.00
GasOil 4.31
Natural Gas 9.60

Industrial Metals 7.83
Aluminium 3.15
Copper 2.87
Lead 0.35
Nickel 0.65
Zinc 0.80
Precious
Metals 2.07
Gold 1.85
Silver 0.22

Agriculture 10.59
Wheat 2.20
Red Wheat 0.87
Corn 2.06
Soybeans 1.40
Cotton 0.93
Sugar 2.18
Coffee 0.77
Cocoa 0.19

Livestock 4.70
Live Cattle 2.59
Feeder Cattle 0.68
Lean Hogs 1.44

Same here!
Any other ideas?
 
Current Reuters CRB Components


Markets Subgroup Weight
Energy Crude Oil, Heating Oil, Natural Gas 17.6%
Grains Wheat, Corn, Soybeans 17.6%
Industrials Copper, Cotton 11.8%
Meats Live Cattle, Lean Hogs 11.8%
Softs Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar Orange Juice 23.5%
Precious Metals Gold, Silver, Platinum 17.6%

10 years is a long time to remember :)
 
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