The originator of this thread posted a report on bonds over the weekend
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Bond rally nearing an end?
- Thread starter gharghur2
- Start date
"Implied yields on interest-rate futures dropped about 30 basis points last week, Poole noted. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. ``If a recession were to be starting soon or mid-year, you'd expect to see'' short-term interest rates ``decline by 200, 300 or maybe 400 basis points,'' he said." Bloomberg
wtf? by this measure we would never ever had a recession. Can you imagine 2Yr at 50bps? LoL
wtf? by this measure we would never ever had a recession. Can you imagine 2Yr at 50bps? LoL
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - A Treasury Department auction of $8 billion in new 10-year notes produced a solid bid-to-cover - or bids rendered to bids received - ratio of 2.64, indicating strong demand. The percentage of indirect bids, a carefully watched category that includes foreign central banks, was 15.4%. The auction produced a high yield of 4.523% and a median yield of 4.498%.
Almost time to sell!
el surdo
Almost time to sell!
el surdo
Quote from Surdo:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - A Treasury Department auction of $8 billion in new 10-year notes produced a solid bid-to-cover - or bids rendered to bids received - ratio of 2.64, indicating strong demand. The percentage of indirect bids, a carefully watched category that includes foreign central banks, was 15.4%. The auction produced a high yield of 4.523% and a median yield of 4.498%.
Almost time to sell!
el surdo
Why selling? It's normal a lower indirect bidders partecipation for reopenings..
Any comments on 30 year / 10 year activity tomorrow followed by remainder of week?
I'm leaning towards long, with a short term target of 113 07. A break below 112 07 negates the above.
Here is an interesting blurb from a bloomberg article:
"Investors who bet Treasuries would decline this week rose to the highest level since September 2006, according to a weekly poll of clients by J.P. Morgan & Co. So-called short positions increased to 32 percent, from 25 percent the previous week, according to the poll."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aYTnKCpWnDPk&refer=bond#
I'm leaning towards long, with a short term target of 113 07. A break below 112 07 negates the above.
Here is an interesting blurb from a bloomberg article:
"Investors who bet Treasuries would decline this week rose to the highest level since September 2006, according to a weekly poll of clients by J.P. Morgan & Co. So-called short positions increased to 32 percent, from 25 percent the previous week, according to the poll."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aYTnKCpWnDPk&refer=bond#
I'll take that trade. This looks like a H&S to me. That aside, I think inflation is the real concern. Out at 113 24, looking for 110 to get out of half.Quote from johnpinochet:
I'm leaning towards long, with a short term target of 113 07. A break below 112 07 negates the above.
I'm playing this with mid-curve ED puts, however.