Bond rally nearing an end?

[dhpar]

Quote from Lance Carson:

Rick Santelli's( CNBC) comments right after the report: "Treasury traders will sell this rally"

Right on target, thank you Rick.

Did he say why he thinks that?

Strange day - probably the most bond-bullish number in the past year and it ends up as a non-event....

 

[JamesVU2000]

CB's around the world are still raising rates. ECB, even Japan will probably raise again. We need to foreign flows to keep this thing going and that means rates that are higher than the rest of the G7. I also think is why the fed and treasury keep doing coupon passes. provide short term liquidity in order to offest higher yields

 

[dhpar]

Quote from JamesVU2000:

CB's around the world are still raising rates. ECB, even Japan will probably raise again. We need to foreign flows to keep this thing going and that means rates that are higher than the rest of the G7. I also think is why the fed and treasury keep doing coupon passes. provide short term liquidity in order to offest higher yields

well thank you sherlock
your statement was true during the past 6 months as well and rates were going down despite worse inflation numbers than today...
The question for me is how to fit today's action into the recent (1month, 6 months or whatever) trading pattern.

 

[Lance Carson]

Quote from scriabinop23:

since you seem quite experienced here, what ticked you off to selling this thing? i had the impulse to sell it when I saw zb around 113 9/32 ... but decided not to and just stay out.

the currencies rubberbanded back quickly; took the treasuries longer today.

When I saw prices breaking resistance minutes before the report, went Long, scalped 20 ticks and exited three bars( 3min) after the first bearish bar ( keeping Rick's comment on mind). Then waited for prices to test key support. Also there was a huge gap on the 30yr yield which usually gets closed on reversal (another clue).The third clue was the Holiday thin volume( rallies don't last)

Went short again at key support level and scalped another 20 ticks.

Have a good weekend.

 

[Optionpro007]

Sweet.

Quote from Lance Carson:

When I saw prices breaking resistance minutes before the report, went Long, scalped 20 ticks and exited three bars( 3min) after the first bearish bar ( keeping Rick's comment on mind). Then waited for prices to test key support. Also there was a huge gap on the 30yr yield which usually gets closed on reversal (another clue).The third clue was the Holiday thin volume( rallies don't last)

Went short again at key support level and scalped another 20 ticks.

Have a good weekend.

 

[scriabinop23]

Quote from Lance Carson:

When I saw prices breaking resistance minutes before the report, went Long, scalped 20 ticks and exited three bars( 3min) after the first bearish bar ( keeping Rick's comment on mind). Then waited for prices to test key support. Also there was a huge gap on the 30yr yield which usually gets closed on reversal (another clue).The third clue was the Holiday thin volume( rallies don't last)

Went short again at key support level and scalped another 20 ticks.

Have a good weekend.

almost unbelievable. great day. how many contracts was that on?

by the way, do you normally take a position before a report release when it moves 10 ticks like that before the release? it looks like resistance was 112 26/32 -- didn't cross it before the report, though.

where do you view real time info on the actual yield and how do you quickly match yield against the futures price?

did you trade zb or zn, by the way? (perhaps you meant the gap between 30 yr futures yield and 10 yr futures yield)

 

[Surdo]

Quote from scriabinop23:

almost unbelievable. great day. how many contracts was that on?

I guess you think that is an appropriate question to ask in a public forum?

surdo

 

[scriabinop23]

Quote from Surdo:

I guess you think that is an appropriate question to ask in a public forum?

surdo

well he's disclosed his size before, so i figured he was comfortable with it. if not, i apologize and withdrawal that comment.

also, does anyone have a futures price -> yield calculator? there must be a java applet out there somewhere that does this./

 

[Surdo]

It just lacks class if he did not volunteer his size.
Why ask?


I just keep a yield chart open.

I suspect Lance is looking at the GAP between 4.72 and 4.64 on The 30 YEAR yield.

 

[scriabinop23]

Quote from Surdo:

It just lacks class if he did not volunteer his size.
Why ask?

i'll give you that -- just curious if he was firing with all ammo based on the pre report activity ...

that takes guts.

by the way, can you refer me to a yield chart?