No, rate-lock selling always before corporate issuance, supposedly 20 billion for next week. But the majority of these dealers were probably locked in by using swaps, so I guess that is why Treasuries never got hit hard today while swaps widened almost a full basis point this morning. Watch open interest in the 10yr. We traded 1 million contracts yesterday and open interest was down by 25,000. Suggesting we didn't gain any new longs into today's move. Mortgage accounts aren't freaking out yet buying upside calls to hedge. Although the overseas buying has been strong. If that continues watch out.
Bond rally nearing an end?
- Thread starter gharghur2
- Start date
Hi Guys,
Monday/tuesday is another one of those quarterly KEY pivot days.
Usually the Bond market reacts at least one full point.
Since the trend has been rising, the reaction is likely to be DOWN.
Tues core PPI is also released coincidentially. Maybe two points!!
careful
Monday/tuesday is another one of those quarterly KEY pivot days.
Usually the Bond market reacts at least one full point.
Since the trend has been rising, the reaction is likely to be DOWN.
Tues core PPI is also released coincidentially. Maybe two points!!
careful
Quote from onlytronalso:
Hi Guys,
Monday/tuesday is another one of those quarterly KEY pivot days.
Usually the Bond market reacts at least one full point.
Since the trend has been rising, the reaction is likely to be DOWN.
Tues core PPI is also released coincidentially. Maybe two points!!
careful
What exactly do you mean by "quarterly KEY pivot days" if you dont mind me asking?
L
Lance Carson
This is the first time in 30 years the Bond market failed on such good inflation data, WOW !
i third the approach... this looks very technical...
great CPI. nothing too optimistic about the philadelphia fed.
normally a good report doesn't get faded more than half way before continued buying. obviously this thing isn't ready to go above 113 1/2... (zb)
you know.. watching this, as well as eurusd, jpyusd, etc.. it is pretty clear we are in a consolidation pattern. going above 113+ for zb, 1.29 for euro, etc.. would all be confirmation that the US economy is weakening that the markets aren't yet ready to make.
anyone think we're back to 110 on the zb? I just don't see it with the fed rate outlook changed.
CBSMarketWatch blames:
Treasury prices dropped Thursday, sending yields higher, after the Treasury Department announced that long-term capital flows into the U.S. declined in September, igniting fears that foreign investors are losing their taste for U.S. government assets.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid={2E76CD2E-EFA7-4487-AA37-D8E43BC5F10A}&siteid=
Treasury prices dropped Thursday, sending yields higher, after the Treasury Department announced that long-term capital flows into the U.S. declined in September, igniting fears that foreign investors are losing their taste for U.S. government assets.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid={2E76CD2E-EFA7-4487-AA37-D8E43BC5F10A}&siteid=
fascinating though that the USD strengthened at the same time today against a bunch of currencies on these reports that would seem to have a positive impact.
you would think this selloff would result in a USD weakening, bond weakening, and equities market weakening. not really buying it.
On the other hand, stronger USD should theoretically weaken foreign demand for any securities or bonds (since foreign buyer has less buying power, so yields will be lower and effective PEs higher).
Is any of this relevant in your guys' views?