Bond rally nearing an end?

mcurto,

I want to thank you for your last two posts. They served as confirmation for my own analysis and well, the result speaks for itself.

Friday was a glorious day in bonds!

As an aside, on your post immediately above, how does this guy make money? Where did he come up with the ability to trade that size given what you say about being wrong consistently?

John
 
PIMCO's Kiesel quoted on Bloomberg saying two year-note looks like a very good investment, so we'll see if this means adding 2/10's steepeners to their 5/30's.
 
In years past the guy did very well when the market would trend for days and weeks on end. It is not that he doesn't do well, but he just leaves a ton of money on the table. Who knows if he doesn't have on something else against this, but I am pretty sure most of his plays are outright long or short the 30yr bond. Again, this guy is incredible at identifying the beginning of big moves in the 30yr but never knows when to get out. He basically swing trades 10,000+ lot positions in the 30yr, so talking about a pretty big trader.
 
Ya, PIMCO could be doing some 2yr vs. 10yr steepeners for some of their futures accounts, while they have 5yr vs. 30yr steepeners in other futures accounts. Who knows, they are so enormous its tough to get an exact account of their position unless you are a shareholder or take the time to look over their prospectus. I actually looked over one with a buddy from the CBOT who holds the Total Return fund in his 401(K) and noticed some fairly large swaption positions where they were mostly receiving on 5yr and 10yr call swaptions. But of course these positions were as of end of the last quarter in March. Can anyone add to the extent of this position? Where do they make money, when the swaps yield over treasuries widens or narrows? I'd assume as a receiver when it narrows.
 
Quote from mcurto:

He basically swing trades 10,000+ lot positions in the 30yr, so talking about a pretty big trader.
More...

Wow, I stand in awe.

Does he have a nickname we can remember him by in case he comes up again in the forum?
 
cant see how inflation calculations, however bogus you find them, can continue to misrepresent what is happening for very much longer....Korea and Iran, oil at 75+, Bush is clueless, Fed is clueless

the edge of the cliff seems near, or is it just me....
 
I do believe that those CBOT open interest reports are delayed a week, and "open interest" includes both longs and shorts.

I tend to take them with a grain of salt, no pun intended.
 
Definitely not delayed a week. What is on the website now is yesterday's action. I would say increase is new shorts on the solid ADP number yesterday and probably some steepeners vs. 30yr added to the picture. 15,000 is small increase, nothing to worry about.
 
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