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Bond rally nearing an end?
- Thread starter gharghur2
- Start date
luckyhonda,
I think most of the people on this thread are more long term oriented than I am. I can go long or short at any time within the 1 - 3 hours that I trade the bonds. Since I started my winning streak of 9 of 9 profitable days in a row roughly 2 weeks ago, almost all of my money has been made on the short side.
Price activity has been very lackluster as far as I'm concerned. I think that has to do with next week's meeting. I had a lot of hope for yesterday's range and even it wasn't that great. My assumption is that with the weekend coming up and rumours starting to fly about a 50 bp raise perhaps Friday will see more downside.
As far as when I will go long? I could at any time, but I think what you mean is when will I start approaching the beginning of a day with a long bias? I can't say at this time, and probably can't say until after next week's meeting.
Today, Friday 23 June 2006, I intend to sell any rallies to 106 12 or higher. Keep in mind that today is a report day, and more importantly, a Friday report day. This means that the price activity at 0720 => 0735 determines the nature of my first order of the day. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say the report will be bad for bond prices and that we will see 105 12 before we see 106 12.
What are my price projection numbers for today?
106 12
106 03
105 28
105 12
On a side note, looking at a daily of ZB you can go back and see some support in the middle of May around the 105 16 area (actually less). However, looking at a daily of ZN it is quite obvious that we broke through support established in mid May. What does this mean? It looks like we'll hit 105 16 today or next week.
I think most of the people on this thread are more long term oriented than I am. I can go long or short at any time within the 1 - 3 hours that I trade the bonds. Since I started my winning streak of 9 of 9 profitable days in a row roughly 2 weeks ago, almost all of my money has been made on the short side.
Price activity has been very lackluster as far as I'm concerned. I think that has to do with next week's meeting. I had a lot of hope for yesterday's range and even it wasn't that great. My assumption is that with the weekend coming up and rumours starting to fly about a 50 bp raise perhaps Friday will see more downside.
As far as when I will go long? I could at any time, but I think what you mean is when will I start approaching the beginning of a day with a long bias? I can't say at this time, and probably can't say until after next week's meeting.
Today, Friday 23 June 2006, I intend to sell any rallies to 106 12 or higher. Keep in mind that today is a report day, and more importantly, a Friday report day. This means that the price activity at 0720 => 0735 determines the nature of my first order of the day. If I had to hazard a guess, I would say the report will be bad for bond prices and that we will see 105 12 before we see 106 12.
What are my price projection numbers for today?
106 12
106 03
105 28
105 12
On a side note, looking at a daily of ZB you can go back and see some support in the middle of May around the 105 16 area (actually less). However, looking at a daily of ZN it is quite obvious that we broke through support established in mid May. What does this mean? It looks like we'll hit 105 16 today or next week.
Important time at 0805.
Short ZN at 104 130
Short ZB at 106 04 or 106 03
Short ZN at 104 130
Short ZB at 106 04 or 106 03
Consider closing half here at 106 00.
Quote from johnpinochet:
Closed everything at:
106 00 ZB
104 100 ZN
Wait for another short entry. Next move may not be until 0900 cycle.
This thread was dedicated to the discussion of the bonds and notes - not a personnal trading journal, (which I believe you have elsewhere, which I do also read) would be nice if we could keep it that way.
Chris
Good Lord! I've been posting to the wrong forum.
Goodness I'm an idiot.....I didn't even look. I read this forum for the long term and post my stuff in my journal.
My sincerest apologies....moderator please delete my messages after allowing me a minute to copy and paste to my journal.
UPDATE: I've managed to delete the ones I can delete. And I edited and then deleted a brief response that apparently wasn't necessary. Sorry about everything. Still red-faced over the whole thing.
Goodness I'm an idiot.....I didn't even look. I read this forum for the long term and post my stuff in my journal.
My sincerest apologies....moderator please delete my messages after allowing me a minute to copy and paste to my journal.
UPDATE: I've managed to delete the ones I can delete. And I edited and then deleted a brief response that apparently wasn't necessary. Sorry about everything. Still red-faced over the whole thing.
No problem. Thanks for contributing.
Quote from landboy:
I hate how "the bond market's got it wrong" lately, there really seems to be no concensus the one day to the next... There wasn't a follow through on the push higher, and that was telling...
Shoulda taken profit when I had the chance... Waay too much anticipation for that CPI number...
Since I've been quiet for a while, I'll put in my two cents. I think markets are torn by irreconciliable forces: oil wants to go up but the Fed is determined to draw the line at $70 (for the time being); but since stocks are only correcting, oil is not interested in giving up.Quote from landboy:
What's with this 50bps talk??? I can't believe it's actually being slightly priced in... crazy...
I have the crazy idea that a 50 bps increase would be good for the markets because not only would it reinforce the Fed's credibility and the effectiveness of its policy signals but would also be consistent with what is currently expressed by the markets. Bonds were going up in May and June during Chairman Bernanke's campaign to convince markets of his hawkish stance towards inflation. Just before the CPI report when everything got messed up -- stocks rallying on worse-than-expected core CPI -- oil was about to drop under the weight of the Fed's anti-inflation message. The fact that there were no more bears left to feed the stock market correction on the day bad CPI data was announced confirms that stocks were and are still oversold, which means that stocks could take the 50 bps blow and profit instead from falling oil prices. I am convinced that oil would fall significantly under the combined pressure of Fed talk AND action.