You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Bond rally nearing an end?
- Thread starter gharghur2
- Start date
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1413+OE+9+2006U+2006U,00.html
I am not that familiar with options. I am wondering if the high volume on the 104 puts indicates that the market is betting that ZN U6 goes to 104. Thank you...
J
I am not that familiar with options. I am wondering if the high volume on the 104 puts indicates that the market is betting that ZN U6 goes to 104. Thank you...
J
10yr trader,
The Sep 104 puts that traded electronically today around 10am to 11am were Bear Stearns rolling a July 105 put position. I always thought this customer was a mortgage account, but now I think it is a European hedge fund. Either way, they churn a ton of commissions and are more active than any other account on the put side this whole sell-off in 2006. In other words, in terms of direction, this guy is right on the money, but pays tons of commissions to do so. They were long about 40,000 plus of the July 105 puts, maybe more, and sold about 25,000 on Friday on the screen, another 20,000 today (with a portion part of a July 105-Sep 104 put diagonal). With the diagonal he was essentially rolling a portion of the long July puts into long Sep 104 puts. He also bought Sep 104 puts outright on the screen about 5,000 times or so. This guy's position is tough to figure out lately since he is doing more on the screen, but becuase he is so big you can still put together about what type of position they are sitting on. He is getting out of July 105 puts because he is worried about a solid bid into the month-end tomorrow and volatility correspondingly getting whacked.
The Sep 104 puts that traded electronically today around 10am to 11am were Bear Stearns rolling a July 105 put position. I always thought this customer was a mortgage account, but now I think it is a European hedge fund. Either way, they churn a ton of commissions and are more active than any other account on the put side this whole sell-off in 2006. In other words, in terms of direction, this guy is right on the money, but pays tons of commissions to do so. They were long about 40,000 plus of the July 105 puts, maybe more, and sold about 25,000 on Friday on the screen, another 20,000 today (with a portion part of a July 105-Sep 104 put diagonal). With the diagonal he was essentially rolling a portion of the long July puts into long Sep 104 puts. He also bought Sep 104 puts outright on the screen about 5,000 times or so. This guy's position is tough to figure out lately since he is doing more on the screen, but becuase he is so big you can still put together about what type of position they are sitting on. He is getting out of July 105 puts because he is worried about a solid bid into the month-end tomorrow and volatility correspondingly getting whacked.
I love the rollover, nothing like seeing only the brokers make money both in the pit and on the screen when they get both sides of a 5,000 lot, or better yet, when you just filled 50,000 spreads on one side like the EDF Man house broker did today in the 10yr. The rollover spread trade opportunities have diminished for locals in terms of what they can leg. Now these guys almost have to take a position in the spread and trade around it throughout rollover.
Quote from mcurto:
I love the rollover, nothing like seeing only the brokers make money both in the pit and on the screen when they get both sides of a 5,000 lot, or better yet, when you just filled 50,000 spreads on one side like the EDF Man house broker did today in the 10yr. The rollover spread trade opportunities have diminished for locals in terms of what they can leg. Now these guys almost have to take a position in the spread and trade around it throughout rollover.
Interesting how that part of the biz is changing, seems like less free money now with the lack of volatility and the advent of technology taking over trading... whatever happened to the specialist taking an eighth off of ya...
Quote from daddyeaux:
curious that a Goldman hire is now in charge of a rudderless boat... I wonder who put him up to it...
unless GW will need a wall street type to steer past the 5.50% no man's land
Geez, they caught me off guard... They took a poor ol sap of a puppet and replaced him with an outspoken, hardnosed, smart as hell banker... What was he thinking??? It's kinda like the Thain appointment, only even less lucrative...
I personally think the Bush admin scored a coup on this one, they better know who they got here, although the way things are headed it may take more than the smrtest guy on wall street to make a difference...
I can see it now, Paulson talking up the dollar on CNBC while Goldman traders short the hell outta greenback...