Bond rally nearing an end?
- Thread starter gharghur2
- Start date
I don't believe the selling here is news related - it is seasonally related to tax flows and is timed around immediate news events. Seasonally rally takes off around beginning of June ... we may be a bit early here as May could still still be quite choppy. Hopefully not enough to shake me out. Did I just say 'hope?' Ugggh ...
I would just add that all of the steepn'r trades we've heard put on, coupled with some markets in Persiian Gulf (Saudi index has crashed ~50%) falling dramatically, has woken me up to the possibility that we may in fact have reached a turning point in equities.
Recall that in the Asian crisis markets crashed one by one. Thailand, Korea, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia ... When one market crashes, even in a remote corner of the world, it is worth taking notice. Chavez is a bubble character if I've ever seen one. (By that I mean, the type that only exist/appear during bubble periods.)
I'm not calling a top ... but just trying to read the signs. I would also argue that if equities sell off, notes & bonds will likely rally.
Famous last words: We'll see how she crumbles ...
Recall that in the Asian crisis markets crashed one by one. Thailand, Korea, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia ... When one market crashes, even in a remote corner of the world, it is worth taking notice. Chavez is a bubble character if I've ever seen one. (By that I mean, the type that only exist/appear during bubble periods.)
I'm not calling a top ... but just trying to read the signs. I would also argue that if equities sell off, notes & bonds will likely rally.
Famous last words: We'll see how she crumbles ...
The only problem with bonds imo, is that too many people are expecting a rally.....
haven't loaded up yet.....
haven't loaded up yet.....
You brought up a lot of good points BlueHorseShoe. The stock market has topped and the fall of equity prices around the world will also impact oil prices and inflation concerns. At that point, both the short end and the long end will pull bond prices up.
I'm not "hoping" (very good observation on that by the way) but see this in the making already.
I'm not "hoping" (very good observation on that by the way) but see this in the making already.
