Bond rally nearing an end?

steveosborne · May 10, 2006

Quote from gharghur2:

caldaro-osborne indicator in sync again?

Yup, and that eventually means molti soldi in tasca.

gharghur2 · May 10, 2006

Only for Surdo ... he's the big player

gharghur2 · May 10, 2006

Had a thought.

If we're right, all rates should pull back over the next several weeks to reflect a new consensus ?

Buy1Sell2 · May 10, 2006

I find it interesting that ZN charts of 15 minutes or less were weakening just before the announcement. I see this kind of thing many times before major news. Either way-- up or down. It's almost as if some of the day traders are "in the know" and are positioning just ahead of news. Does anyone else notice this phenomenom ever?
Edit: I didn't trade it as I am mostly longer term except for some FX futures and some ES stuff. Thus , I held my long position.

steveosborne · May 10, 2006

This phenomenon is usually traders stepping aside as opposed to new and crucial information being integrated into prices.

gharghur2 · May 10, 2006

Think most of us a long right now.

There are always front runners in any market.

Buy1Sell2 · May 10, 2006

Quote from steveosborne:

This phenomenon is usually traders stepping aside as opposed to new and crutial information being integrated.

I would agree with this, but it certainly "appears" that people know.

Buy1Sell2 · May 10, 2006

Quote from gharghur2:

Think most of us a long right now.

There are always front runners in any market.

This is in conflict with Steve's point. Who is right here or are both of you somewhat right?

steveosborne · May 10, 2006

LOL. I'm laughing at myself for what I am about to answer because I'll probably sound like a politician: I noticed that during the hour before an important annoucement, traders tend to step aside (and information is <i>withdrawn</i> from price fluctuations) but just a minute before the annoucement, front-runners start rushing in.

GG and I in disagreement? Come on...

landboy · May 10, 2006

Quote from mcurto:

All the big boys still short the 2yr (since about 4.68% in cash) vs. every once in awhile getting long the 10yr to leg into a flattener at advantageous levels, or at least that is what Greenwich Capital Markets has been doing. Speaking of the 2yr futures, did anyone watch that little fat finger error at about 11:40am central time? Check out the time and sales. A 9000 lot traded 24.5 (oops) and then straight up to 102-01.75 for the high of the day, then within a minute or so back down to 24.5, with a total of 15,000 or so trading on from 24.5 up to 01.75. Then, about half an hour later, after everyone and their mother was talking about the error, another 15,000 traded from 24.25 to 24.5. They barely squeezed out of that error before the FOMC. I think it was very costly though. In my opinion risk/reward is best for 5.50% pricing in say December eurodollars. Get bearish that short end.

Ya, looking at the chart right now, somebody's getting fired!