OK--I have observed a clear as a bell class A MACD Histogram bearish divergence on hourly euro fx charts. Also, there is a class B RSI bearish divergence on hourlies with failure swings at the OB line. FED announcement is coming and the daily trend in euro is strongly up. My question is to everyone is --what do you do?
Bond rally nearing an end?
- Thread starter gharghur2
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Daily divergences are just in their formative stages in my view. A look back to the run up in late 04 shows divergences forming while the euro continued to climb. It wasn't until we had a failure swing with RSI on daily charts that the Euro began to fall in earnest. My thought on this is that hourly divergences can be traded for profit, but you just can't stay in them a long time unless the daily trend has reversed. However, as we all know the daily trend reversal starts with an hourly divergence etc. Is this the one? Furthermore, does it match with my long position in ZN?
I should mention as well, that the correct entry for an hourly divergence is on a smaller time frame like 5 or 15, just like you may do on the daily chart using an hourly for entry. etc.
Personally, I'm waiting for a lower low in the Dollar with positive divergences on the daily charts. Seems to have fit most of the bottoms.
Conversely, the Euro should make a higher high with negative divergences.
Thus far the Dollar has slid straight down. A bounce here could set up the positive divergences at the next low.
It doesn't always work, but it's a great set up when it does.
We just had similar positive divergence in the 30yr at the lows. Check the daily chart.
Conversely, the Euro should make a higher high with negative divergences.
Thus far the Dollar has slid straight down. A bounce here could set up the positive divergences at the next low.
It doesn't always work, but it's a great set up when it does.
We just had similar positive divergence in the 30yr at the lows. Check the daily chart.
I think you are correct on the longer daily time frame chart. I agree with your analysis. My trade here would be intraday at best. As we speak , the 5 minute chart has exhibited bearish divergence. I must go short at 1.2835 intraday. I mean if I really mean that I only pay attention to technicals, then this is what I must do. GG, I normally won't put short term stuff here in the thread, but I wondered what other people thought about this scenario with the FED coming.
