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Bond rally nearing an end?
- Thread starter gharghur2
- Start date
Quote from Surdo:
Only 6 more points til par!
That oughta start attracting some buy interest, ya think?
ya, my question is, who's gonna do the buying? Asia, pensions, technicians... I don't believe fundamentally a bottom is warranted, but the risk/reward ratio just doesn't appear to be as good anymore...
Quote from Surdo:
Only 6 more points til par!
That oughta start attracting some buy interest, ya think?
I was just looking at the 30yr chart, and it's starting to show positive divergences at these lows. And they have both been in the 104 and 105 areas I've been targeting. Interesting!
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Quote from landboy:
ya, my question is, who's gonna do the buying? Asia, pensions, technicians... I don't believe fundamentally a bottom is warranted, but the risk/reward ratio just doesn't appear to be as good anymore...
You are absolutely correct about the risk/reward ratio.
Short sellers rally?
The crazies were out today in Fed Fund options, we think a Duestche Bank london trader bought about 65,000 of the Fed Fund May 9500 puts, can you say "Fed raises rates by 50 bps at the next meeting." Only a quarter tick, so didn't spend too much of the banks money, about half a mil. Even if we get a blowout NFP and go lower remember that huge size has been getting short in the 5yr note basically within five ticks of the last trade today. I'm not sure if these are rate-lock hedges (pretty sure that type of size of 40,000 or so rushing through yesterday would be) or a fund hurrying up to get short, but they will most likely be unwound tomorrow on a blowout number, so after the initial knee-jerk lower we could still get a good bounce. I still like going with the plus or minus 20,000 from the expected number at this point, no volatility.
Intermediate term low...
We've come down quite a bit 115+ to 105+ over nearly four months. Bonds are oversold by any measure. There are positive divergences setting up on the daily chart (30yr). I think a sharp spike down tomorrow could tilt the trend the other way for several weeks. And, maybe a rally back to 110. Will be watching to see what happens.
We've come down quite a bit 115+ to 105+ over nearly four months. Bonds are oversold by any measure. There are positive divergences setting up on the daily chart (30yr). I think a sharp spike down tomorrow could tilt the trend the other way for several weeks. And, maybe a rally back to 110. Will be watching to see what happens.