Bond rally nearing an end?

Quote from BlueHorseshoe:

I'm telling you folks, the curve is gonna bounce around invert level then take off north ... institutioners are getting excited about it (the turn that is.)

Its not a day trade but one of those that begins every several years - and makes or breaks careers.

We should dive below invert again then watch the postions pile on. We're only seeing the genesis now and looking on in wonder ...
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I also see this happening again and was recently thinking that the original signal would be some kind of indication from the Fed that monetary policy will be tighter than what has been discounted so far but I now see another possible signal from a different scenario.

Again this morning, the inflation-risk premium is lower. The 0.4 CPI Wednesday was in line with expectations; economic data after that was lower than expected; and Yellen speech this week reminded us that the Fed is considering a good part of current growth to be a bounce after a weak quarter at the end of last year. Bonds and stocks will have a tendency to go sideways before Bernanke's testimony and the Beige Book release in the middle of the next week while oil (June contract) is likely to reach $75 but complete a double top at that point and then go down in May while data and Fed comments are telling us that we had built up exagerated expectations for growth and inflation.
 
Quote from mcurto:

EDF Man is actually Man Financial, huge brokerage house with operations in London, New York City, Chicago, all over the place. It could be any number of $1 billion plus hedge funds out there or even a bank trader, not really sure who their biggest customers are. They like to use the screen for some of their options stuff because they can get double brokerage, match up a screen local and customer, take the pit out of the loop, has been happening with them the past few months. The worst thing is the pit will sometimes have a better market, especially in the 30yr, yet they will still put some of the orders on the screen. Oh well.
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Mcurto ... yes I recall you mentioning him before, thx.
 
Bonds will make a low soon, still looking lower for now.
Then will have a fairly good countertrend rally, while the FED is still raising rates.

I agree, the curve will probably invert again in the next couple of months.
 
Tony:

I happen to concur on your $80 number!
Every time I think of selling crude, It is up another $2.
Imagine where crude will go with any real catalyst?

Have a great weekend.

Surdo
 
I mentioned Tuesday that oil always reaches new record levels in parabolic moves and was expecting oil prices to either reach $75 the next day or else, reach $80 shortly after. But in light of new market developments that are persisting today in the bond and stock markets, I think that $80 is out of reach for now because of changing expectations about growth and inflation.
 
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