Bond rally nearing an end?

Interesting notes out of our lovely research boys upstairs, albeit a bit dated. Surprisingly, the folks who were the most active in UST auctions in 2005 were... The BRITS!

They attribute a healthy appetite for treasuries due to a lot of petrodollar users (oil producers who have now seen record profits and 'excess' cash).

We're in a race with the ECB as well in the interest rate hike. People seem to be more willing to play the Fed-ECB rate rush more now than ever.

Just a thought...

-cbk
 
FWIW, on a preliminary look, the 30yr has declined sufficiently.
I am seeing positive divergences on the price/yoeld charts.
Think we're close to a bottom if not there already.
 
Quote from simp1:

Ive been a keen reader of this post for some time now , i know you guys mainly look at US Bonds, i trade european bonds mainly euribor just wondered if any of you guys have been watching these and have any thoughs.

Thanks.
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An interesting piece on the bund has just arrived on my desk. Upshot is a VERY compelling story on why bunds are still a great sell. Looking for a 10yr yield of 4.25% -a long way to go!
 
A pivotal event could be tonight in Japan. Given the size of JGB porfolios that will be MTM there is going to be a real incentive to keep the 10yr future above l/t support 133-133.15.

We dipped below this last night and again on LIFFE trade but closed in "safe" territory.

The bond vigilantes are back! maybe....
 
Yes, we did finally see a nice widening of 10Y swaps today out to 54.25 from 53.5 or so yesterday over the 10yr Treasury. Surprisingly the mortgage guys weren't active today in the options but were active in the June 105 puts earlier this week. The most interesting play out of the options is that the Japanese continue to roll their 30yr puts, they were long the May 109 puts about 25,000 total, sold 10,000 outright today, rolled 5,000 into the May 108 puts yesterday, rolled 10,000 into the June 107 puts today. Since these puts are a hedge that tells you the Asian accounts may not be the underlying bid in the 30yr at least for quite some time. As for his 10yr puts, he is long the May 106 puts about 20,000 times, so maybe from here the NOB could steepen a little if they aren't as willing to buy the ultra long-end in the US curve and instead could be better buyers in the 10Y and 5Y.
 
I am a newbie and have learned a ton reading this thread today guys but my question is why are the Swap guys lifting spreads?

GS seemed to be a huge buyer of bonds today was that covering or outright buys?

Love this thread.
 
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