If the bounce continues until the end of the month, it is likely to do so in two phases where the first phase is a reaction to weak data and a realization that comments from the Fed on the economy's strength is about the first quarter in particular, with the rest of year expected to benefit from slower growth. That would be why we see more volatility-adjusted strength in shorter maturities today.
While the first phase would be about changing growth expectations, the second one would be about changing views on inflation -- markets are more likely to start a move (up or down) with a sudden reaction to growth data instead of price data. This means if oil prices don't go above $66 in the next few days and bonds continue to climb, we'll see markets reajusting their expectations about inflation (expectations that sent bonds 3 ticks down recently) and longer maturities will benefit the most at that point.
