Bond rally nearing an end?

[JohnL111]

The payrolls number will probably get revised over the next few months, so it may or may not be the start of a trend. What this number does do is allow the Fed to spin the statement next week to a future pause. After the statement and auctions, the market will have the greenlight to put on steepeners.

Look at the XLF outperforming the SPY – banks are getting exactly what they want, a steeper curve to get the spreads contributing to the bottom line. The FOMC is composed of bankers who will help their friends if they can come up with some justification for a pause in the rate rise. I don’t think the long-end of the curve (and the forex markets) can be fooled. They should punish the Fed for dovish behavior.

 

[gharghur2]

Wow!
This is such an interesting market.
There are so many cross currents:

Gold's relentless rally
A gap up opening for bonds
The cyclicals leading the stock market
The growth sector not wanting any part of it
Crude readying to run again?
Short term rates still rising
Steepeners, flatteners
A new FED chair
Tell me America isn't fun!

 

[landboy]

ya, a little disappointed, no follow through on the rally, will look for some confirmation on Wednesday... have a nice weekend everybody...

 

[gharghur2]

same 2 u, and all

 

[gharghur2]

Bonds/Notes:
There are positive divergences on the daily charts which indicates we might have seen the low of this intermediate term downtrend. Maybe a retest or slightly lower low will put in the bottom. Generally, long term rates should be heading lower for several weeks, as Bonds head higher.

 

[steveosborne]

It seems like when bonds have been oversold since mid-April, at the same time the dollar started a new leg down after breaking through their previous low of the year.

 

[gharghur2]

Yes, you are correct.

Now the Dollar is way oversold, and Bonds are making positive divergences at the recent lows. Seems like a shift in perspective.

 

[drsteph]

Quote from gharghur2:

Yes, you are correct.

Now the Dollar is way oversold, and Bonds are making positive divergences at the recent lows. Seems like a shift in perspective.

May be oversold, but I think we could see 1.30 before we get a correction the way this market is moving. And that might only be back to where we are now.

I am still holding to target of 5.35 yield on the 30 years before I expect a correction of significance.

BTW that nonfarm was rather convenient...

Gonna be an interesting week....

 

[landboy]

Gonna try to hold myself back from doing anything before the fed statement, like trying to tell a chain smoker to quit for a couple days...

 

[gharghur2]

Quote from drsteph:

May be oversold, but I think we could see 1.30 before we get a correction the way this market is moving. And that might only be back to where we are now.

I am still holding to target of 5.35 yield on the 30 years before I expect a correction of significance.

BTW that nonfarm was rather convenient...

Gonna be an interesting week....

Interesting 5.35% was my target too
May or may not reach it now.

You were right on the Dollar Doc. It did break support and is still weak. Not calling for a bottom yet, but its searching for one. I have three EW pivots I've been watching.