Bond rally nearing an end?

Quote from Voodoo-king:

The deflationary influence has been strong enough to keep inflation low even in a period where commodity markets have been rising sharply. So I guess the question is, will commodity prices continue to rise as sharply as they have, if not, then I think that points to lower inflation.

In the past rising commodity markets have been inherently inflationary, but that was because it ignited a wage spiral, when inflation expectations are anchored due to inflation targeting I think its only a question about the extend costs can be passed along to consumers. The rising rate environment and the consumer’s higher and higher debt level will make it increasingly harder to pass costs along.

And for bonds. I think the future looks bright, it’s the only asset class in witch investors haven’t been burned lately except real estate. Commodity 97-00, stocks 00-02. Where will investors put their money if real estate fails them?

The demographic influence is a long-term factor, but I think it acts as a roof for yields, getting lower and lower. Soon this and forward looking investors will hit the momentum ball the other way.

I only hope the protectionist talk is only talk. If not that could probably be inflationary? But it would probably reduce world growth, so I don’t know..
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Canada recently signed a lumber agreement to stop Tariffs from being charged on our softwood to the States. This president talks free trade but when it comes down to it, the lobby and congress either tie his hands or push him the other way... It took over 4 years and billions to get a deal. And it's still not very "free"... now instead of tariffs there are quotas...
 
Quote from steveosborne:

...the next opportunity to buy oversold bonds, which could be as early as next week.
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What I am specifically waiting for to be confident that bonds can rally is the appropriate bias. A bullish bias is present when markets are quick at brushing off whatever piece of information was first considered to be bearish -- obviously not the case today. Since it takes some time for a new bias to build up, I didn't think that this week would be the right time to switch position.
 
Dealers and decent local pushing from what I am seeing, this is on light volume though at about 600,000 only in the 10yr.
 
Quote from gharghur2:

So far, they just keep on selling
Surely the Dollar is no help either
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Wow.

Just keeps going, doesn't it?

I think we are starting to get out of the realm of "orderly".

I doubt the g7 meeting wanted this.

Suspect that there will be intervention soon.

Will make for a nice place to add to my short.
:)
 
Quote from mcurto:

Dealers and decent local pushing from what I am seeing, this is on light volume though at about 600,000 only in the 10yr.
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Light volume?
Guess the decline is beginning to fade.
Thx Mcurto
 
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