Bond rally nearing an end?

Quote from gharghur2:

Thought it was 2007 already :)
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LOL.

I was trying to throw cold water over the impression that the Consumer Confidence Index was at an all time high. Looking at this chart, you can see that confidence is not that high.
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Hi Steve,

Very nice chart. Puts things in the proper perspective.
So the peak was at the top. Interesting!

Nearly everyone bought into that dotcom nonsense. We can blame the press and 'new to the game' stock analysts for that.

Now everyone, imo, is overly cautious.
 
The Beige Book is consistent with what markets were recently pricing when market participants were lowering their expectations about growth and inflation (until yesterday).

Real estate is cooling; only 3 out of 12 districts reported solid growth; producers have difficulty passing on higher costs to consumers; but the manufacturing sector is still strong.
 
You did not mention the talk of shortages in certain raw materials that producers need to obtain. And talk of farmers having problems with inflated input prices.
 
Quote from gharghur2:

THX Steve,

Guess bad news means we should rally then, if good news is sold off :confused:
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We still have a barrage of data and events ahead of us that will keep markets cautious. Once we have Bernanke's testimony; the FOMC meeting and the employment report out of the way, the bond market will be free to rally, providing we continue getting indications that the economy is not as strong as we believed it to be until early last week.
 
Quote from Johnny Walker:

You did not mention the talk of shortages in certain raw materials that producers need to obtain. And talk of farmers having problems with inflated input prices.
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I made sure to mention <i>but the manufacturing sector is still strong</i>.

Don't worry, I know how to cram in a Beige Book in a couple of lines.
 
Quote from gharghur2:

LOL

Like cramming for a test ;)
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Like getting the jist of it because markets are always trying to decide on one thing: are we going up or are we going down? And when they don't know, they go sideway.
 
I think this economy is way stronger then people think. Earnings so far have come in 70% above expectations because companies are able to raise prices and keep wages low for the most part. For now. I predict BB on thursday will try and sound hawkish again to protect the buck and keep commodities under control.
 
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