Bond rally nearing an end?

Quote from optionpro007:

Thanks Johnny.

Were those cases, worldwide events or country specific? I think they were country specific, weren't they?

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( btw, I apologize for placing this question on this thread, but figured from the posts members have contributed that the audience is experienced )

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As for my contribution to this thread, all government bonds indices around the world are showing the same picture. A very long bear market that started last summer could last a decade.
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Hi!

There are of course exceptions to your generalizations.

In stocks for instance, many of the worlds markets turned higher in early 2003 and continue to rise, true. But one was devastated for a long period of time: Nikkei. And one, China, just turned bullish in the middle of last year.

Long term rates are of course rising from the extreme low levels they achieved during the new millenium meltdown. They are still not at normalized levels.

Crude is wild, because the historical balance of supply and demand has been offset by China's emergence into world trade.

Gold had been depressed for 25 years. Maybe just catching up to a more normalized price? There is large demand due to Asian savings being partly placed in gold.

Even if everything appears to be rising, moneys will flow to the investment that provides the greatest potential for gain with the least risk. and, we are beginning to run out of many of those options.
 
Someone was asking about the June 106 puts in 30yr trying to roll into the Sep 104 puts. That play is a pure volatility play, John Hughes essentially trades as an enormous upstairs local using a Vol model, or at least we think so. Anyway, I guess not really something to pay attention to besides they think volatility may be cheaply priced at that specific strike in September.
 
1970's are almost here again. Energy prices plus all those industrial materials costs are finally going to be pushed through to the consumer. I predict the next CPI is going to come in as hot as this one.
 
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