Bond rally nearing an end?

[steveosborne]

I think of trends as quilts. Each week or each wave inside the trend is a patch with it's own story.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from ralph00:

Interest rate markets have just become supertough to trade the past few years - ever since the Fed started telegraphing exactly what they were doing. I'd like the Fed to go back to its old opaque ways and let the market do some thinking for itself.

Surely, this post was an attempt at humor. Supertough? I'd hate to see what the poster would say when it really does get tough.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from landboy:

Nope, don't use technicals... i was trying something else...

No, not looking for reasons, and don't wory about me i can be wrong many more times...

I suggest canning the daily news and going with technicals only. Now if you truly are a deep pockets position player and have not wildly overextended, then fine. However, I suspect this is not the case as your short bias would probaby have had you in early enough to be now nailing down profits instead of taking losses. If you are day trading, then any news or apparent reasons for market moves are irrelevant.

 

[landboy]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I suggest canning the daily news and going with technicals only. Now if you truly are a deep pockets position player and have not wildly overextended, then fine. However, I suspect this is not the case as your short bias would probaby have had you in early enough to be now nailing down profits instead of taking losses. If you are day trading, then any news or apparent reasons for market moves are irrelevant.

if there's one thing I did wrong for this downleg, it was putting stops too tight, I was constantly squeezed from my shorts, and am about to be AGAIN...

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from landboy:

if there's one thing I did wrong for this downleg, it was putting stops too tight, I was constantly squeezed from my shorts, and am about to be AGAIN...

Where was your initial entry and stop

 

[gharghur2]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Didn't we have a double bottom in RSI coupled with a MACD Histogram Bullish divergence?? What's going on here that someone saw this differently? There doesn't have to be a reason for market moves. Look at technicals especially if you are undercapitalized and have to be right.

Not seeing what you are seeing...
What RSI timeframe are you using, and on what timeframe chart?
Thanks

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from gharghur2:

Not seeing what you are seeing...
What RSI timeframe are you using, and on what timeframe chart?
Thanks

looking at daily continuation chart. There is a better sample of info on the continuation chart. I never change the settings, I just use the standard 14 . Same with MACD --just the standard settings.

 

[gharghur2]

Okay on the 14 day I see a slight positive divergence at the lows and a double bottom oversold MACD. On the 5 day RSI I see a similar divergence, over a one month period.

My momentum work turned up this weekend so I see the low as a potential bottom as well. I've been basically watching notes/bonds since early March and looking for the next shorting opportunity. I did expect it to go lower than it did, so that was a surprise. But I did go long the 2yr near the top so we'll see what happens.

Thanks for your input. All I do is technicals
I leave the fundamentals up to the many talented people here.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from gharghur2:

Okay on the 14 day I see a slight positive divergence at the lows and a double bottom oversold MACD. On the 5 day RSI I see a similar divergence, over a one month period.

My momentum work turned up this weekend so I see the low as a potential bottom as well. I've been basically watching notes/bonds since early March and looking for the next shorting opportunity. I did expect it to go lower than it did, so that was a surprise. But I did go long the 2yr near the top so we'll see what happens.

Thanks for your input. All I do is technicals
I leave the fundamentals up to the many talented people here.

One further note-- To make the patterns like divergences easier to see, I also use a line chart in conjunction with the bar chart.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from landboy:

if there's one thing I did wrong for this downleg, it was putting stops too tight, I was constantly squeezed from my shorts, and am about to be AGAIN...

I apologize for my tone earlier. I didn't mean it to sound the way it did, when I read it back myself--Sorry