Bond rally nearing an end?

Brazil made the move to Ethonal early and by 1980,s it was in all gas stations in the city of Rio. The local hated it, but it was the right move by the Government.
 
Quote from johnpinochet:

I'm curious to know what people think of the next several months to few years out.

Specifically are we headed to a return to the 80's when 30 year mortgage rates were 14% plus? Is it possible that we may experience the unfortunate hyperinflation that hit Argentina during and after the Falkland Island (Isla Malvinas) war?

I lived close to Argentina during that time and as an American it was phenomenal, i.e. 3 - 5 course meals for 5 bucks.

Perhaps the time is coming when we will be on the receiving end?
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I think that it is a done deal that we hit 8% 30 year mortgage rates by 18 months. We're already at 6.5%, so with some pain in the housing market, and a return of the risk premium (possibly along with fannie mae reform or other legislative influences to curb borrowing) this isn't too silly. Up to 9% for a while, and back down to 8% until things sort out.

I think that the pattern of the rise is linked to short term rates where the short term rates lead, and the curve briefly inverts, then flattens. The fed will keep hiking until it gets what it needs.

I keep maintaining that there are significant reasons why long bond yields need to be above 7% - pension issues, etc... It would solve a lot of problems on the PBGC's behalf, and our legislators.

As far as hyperinflation? Not yet. I think its pretty unlikely. However, if it does happen and you haven't prepared for it, you're really screwed, aren't you? Particularly if you are a zero coupon holder.

Remember that it took us 25 years to go from 14% to 5%. May take us 25 years to go back up too.
 
I believe the Fed and or most central banks will not stop raising rates until gold is under $400. If they don't currency will be worth shit.
 
if the Fed. was a real Fed., short rates would be near 10%....

basically, the Fed is devaluing the dollar to force people to work longer to help pay for the Socialist Paradise for the boomers who are about to hang it up....

hyperinflation is here hiding in plain sight.....a 1930 dollar is worth 6 cents today.....

and it takes $5 in debt to produce $1 in GDP.....

so Big Ben has to engineer inflation to propagate the fraud, since the cure for all of this is very distasteful
 
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