Bond rally nearing an end?

Quote from John47:

number had to be leaked or somebody took a huge bet and made out, exactly half the move of the whole day in my product happened in the 10 sec's before the number. bullshit.

'24 I believe is the 10 yr level associated w/ 5%....I believe friday it even settled higher than that, so 10 yr and FF going inverted? Thats almost reason enough (IMO) to be queu'd up to sell 10 yr's.
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Ya, apparently the Fed gauges invertedness between the FF and 10s, so we're pretty inverted using the June implied rate...

The TUT spread is still about 8 basis points positive, but that's coz even the 2 year is joining the ride, that will of course change if inflation numbers come in high...
 
you mean don't fight the TOKYO fed....

recall that JCB mentioned a few weeks back that it was considering a cut off of free money which sent shock waves through credit markets...the JCB quickly backed off as soon as Bernanke looked up their phone number.......

the trade weighted dollar against Asian baskets has broken to new lows...
 
Quote from daddyeaux:

you mean don't fight the TOKYO fed....

recall that JCB mentioned a few weeks back that it was considering a cut off of free money which sent shock waves through credit markets...the JCB quickly backed off as soon as Bernanke looked up their phone number.......

the trade weighted dollar against Asian baskets has broken to new lows...
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With Europe and Japan central banks hinting at future tightening, matters just get more muddled and complicated as to where US bonds should be headed... I'm always sceptical of Jpn, is this finally the time when they break outta their decade long slump...
 
who the hell needs the US Fed anyway....

credit can be created out of thin air as it stands and sold like apples on the corner....

there seems to be no method to drain credit in an orderly fashion and maintain relationships between asset classes....

recall that a few weeks ago, EVERYTHING tanked.... gold, dollar, bonds, S&P, housing, EM debt, etc....

that's the message... there's only a gas pedal...no brakes and no clutch....
 
Thank you guys for ALL the replies.

I learn much from all of you and hope my contributions also help some you in some way.

Will get back later during the week, when I have a better idea of how to present my ideas and further questions.

Cheers !! :)
 
Quote from mcurto:

Best way to profit would be to short the 2yr note futures, Fed funds, or Eurodollars. I wouldn't necessarily short the long end outright, the curve should flatten if the Fed is on the table for June, so you will get better bang for your buck being short the front end of the curve. The reason for the curve to steepen would be if the Fed is near the end game and if long end traders do not feel confident the end of this monetary cycle has contained inflation. PIMCO is looking for the latter scenario as they are long the FOB (long 5yr short 30yr). I also think PIMCO may be long Swaption vol vs. short Treasury option vol as a play on the expansion of risk premiums, kind of different story.
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how about buying the TUT spread? riskier?
 
Equities sold off heavy today, anybody think there may be some rebalancing into bonds? Treasuriies seemed to shrug off the news, the declines weren't nearly as bad...
 
OK, nobody laugh now, but I am still long the 10 yr futures and looking to add on dips. I am looking at high 103's as a stop out point still.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

OK, nobody laugh now, but I am still long the 10 yr futures and looking to add on dips. I am looking at high 103's as a stop out point still.
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I'm still long too. Why? Because my system says to be. I short from 1/27 until I went long on 5/26.

I am also short stocks, since 11/18.

I believe we might have a stock market crash here and a flight to liquidity (10 year bonds). But my beliefs don't affect my quant system.
 
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