Bond rally nearing an end?

Quote from steveosborne:

Resistance under attack this morning. 107 for bonds and 85 for the dollar index. After establishing 68 as a rock hard bottom Wednesday, the oil market is now testing 70 as the upper limit of a trading range. A $2 range for oil would be very narrow so 70 will probably break.
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on good volume too, especially on a no news day i'm suprised, let's see if we go inverted next week!! that should get them talking....
 
Resistance was futile in bonds and currencies. Oil is showing fabulous price action: after a failed attempt to hit 70, prices went back down to re-visit support at 68 and stopped at exactly 68.00 again before bouncing back. I'm surprised that 70 wasn't broken but that confirms my suspicion that oil is trying to establish a range. By range, I mean a gravitational band that would allow brief occasional excursions above 70 and below 68 during the next couple of weeks.
 
I think every hedge fund and their mother had the short US Treasuries vs. long Gold trade on and we are seeing the aftermath of that trade this whole week. Heard rumblings of some real money buying in the very long end of the US curve, but noticeably absent from the belly of the curve (5Y and 10Y). PIMCO came in later in the day and absolutely punished the 30yr with some huge FOB steepeners (buying 5yr vs. selling 30yr) in both futures and cash. Heard the cash side was fairly large (probably half a billion or more). We were on a smooth downtrend until we hit 107-00, then Goldman bid 1000 in the pit along with another 2500+ on the screen, and that was the end of the downtick. BUYER BEWARE at these levels as real money has still not participated in the belly of the curve, which is where they tend to be active. Kudos to those who got long slightly off contract lows and are still holding.
 
Mcurto

Thanks as always for the floor color.
I rang the register a little today, I will jump back in if we sell off, next week. I am sure they will go to 109 without me, but I was a little pale down in the 105 and change territory.

Have a nice weekend to all!


el surdo
 
It always intrigues me what Gross is thinking on any given day... well, at least he finally admitted he was wrong about current yields, that the fed would and may still continue to push into mid 5%.

With regards to the belly missing most of the action, it's a little hard for the 10's to be pushing below 5%, every uptick in March and April seemed to be concentrating more in that area, while the 30yr steepened without relenting, so I feel if there's anything that can be pushed higher with less difficulty i would think it'd be the very long end... just my two cents...
 
Quote from landboy:

With regards to the belly missing most of the action, it's a little hard for the 10's to be pushing below 5%, every uptick in March and April seemed to be concentrating more in that area, while the 30yr steepened without relenting, so I feel if there's anything that can be pushed higher with less difficulty i would think it'd be the very long end... just my two cents...
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It pretty much comes down to that.
 
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