Bond rally nearing an end?

Quote from Voodoo-king:

If it's ever been a period where the fed could wish the CPI numbers was different from what they really are, I think it would be now. I think the fed wants to take short term rates as high as it possible can so that it has ammunition to fight the coming low-inflations/deflation environment due to reasons I’ve mentioned earlier in this tread. I don’t think the fed will be able to lift short term rates much more though, since I think this low inflation environment will come faster than people expect.
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I finally figured out why I had to re-read your posts Voodoo-king. They're not just insightful and coherent but also contain the out-of-the-box thinking edge that helped me tie up of few loose pieces. Why is the Fed always overshooting and why this time it might pause earlier than what past history would indicate.

I mentioned in a post last year that in the past 35 years the Fed has always waited for capacity utilization to go down to either start lowering interest rates or to just keep them steady:
http://www.dallasfed.org/data/data/mub00004.htm
http://www.dallasfed.org/data/data/rmfedfun.htm

I couldn't understand why they wouldn't pause once in a while but the concept of gaining room to maneuver makes sense. I also see why they are now talking about pausing while the manufacturing sector is still strong. As we all know, the housing boom gave exhausted consumers an extra opportunity to finance they consumption needs but now that the housing sector is cooling off, we should see very small rates of increase in consumption.
 
I forgot to mention in my previous post is that if consumption is slowing down and that the only inflation passthrough we had while consumption was still strong was in Transportation, then the low inflation/deflation scenario becomes very plausible.
 
Quote from steveosborne:

I forgot to mention in my previous post is that if consumption is slowing down and that the only inflation passthrough we had while consumption was still strong was in Transportation, then the low inflation/deflation scenario becomes very plausible.
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you think it's possible we get supply-side pressure leading to stagflation? My guess is could be a second half downturn due to housing/energy costs, but continued pressure on prices due to non-core items, voila, negative growth and positive pricing pressures...
 
Isn’t it reasonable to expect housing rents and short term rates to be correlated? When increases in housing rents drives the core CPI number higher, it looks like the fed fight itself fighting inflation. A design to overshoot..
 
Quote from steveosborne:

I finally figured out why I had to re-read your posts Voodoo-king. They're not just insightful and coherent but also contain the out-of-the-box thinking edge that helped me tie up of few loose pieces. Why is the Fed always overshooting and why this time it might pause earlier than what past history would indicate.

I mentioned in a post last year that in the past 35 years the Fed has always waited for capacity utilization to go down to either start lowering interest rates or to just keep them steady:
http://www.dallasfed.org/data/data/mub00004.htm
http://www.dallasfed.org/data/data/rmfedfun.htm

I couldn't understand why they wouldn't pause once in a while but the concept of gaining room to maneuver makes sense. I also see why they are now talking about pausing while the manufacturing sector is still strong. As we all know, the housing boom gave exhausted consumers an extra opportunity to finance they consumption needs but now that the housing sector is cooling off, we should see very small rates of increase in consumption.
More...

This manufacturing graph really looks puzzling. I can understand why the fed wanted utilization to increase before they started hiking rates 2004, to be sure the recovery was for real, but not why they didn’t react to falling utilization earlier than they did in 2001.
 
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