Bond rally nearing an end?

WOW! $750 GOLD ... 1.34 EURO

Gold recent new highs are not being confirmed by the gold mining stocks, which have tracked it all the way up. $700 sounds like a nice round number to sell.

The Dollar has yet to test and fail at important support levels just below the market. Until that happens I remain BULLISH long term while the Dollar seeks this intermediate term low.

Just my thoughts ;)
 
2 day total on this NOB strangle package is 27,000 x 16,000, pretty much same levels. This NOB is gonna make a big move soon, all of this seems to be pointing toward a steepening of the spread.
 
Quote from drsteph:

I know that I shouldn't do this, but I use days like this to set myself up for the upcoming events, establish a position, and then put in a stop (and maybe even a take-profit, but I hate to put those in except when they are trailing profitable stops).

Much smarter to do what you are doing.

But I have never said that I was very smart, anyway.
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I agree with your first statement about putting on positions on when times are slow. I don't agree with the second statement that it is much smarter to not put in positions on these slow days. It is my belief that the smart money positions themselves ahead of the crowd using whatever technicals they are comfortable with. It's the small spec who then is chasing the market right after news etc.
 
el Surdo boarded the train this afternoon! (an add on)

I would love to see a Pit Close of 106 '18 , or higher, for one more "Greenie"!
 
Quote from mcurto:

We were very dead yesterday, although seems like someone at Goldman is short and continues to sit on the offer around 105-08 give or take a few ticks in the 10yr, probably a play ahead of an expected weak 3yr auction. Only thing of notice yesterday in options land was a big NOB options play again. This time selling 17,000 Sep 103-106 strangles in the 10yr versus buying 10,000 Sep 103-108 strangles in the 30yr. This is another steepening play in the NOB, or at least my take on it. Risk arb, any help on the greeks side?
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It's curve/premium/greek neutral here and not terribly aggressive. The greeks are currently flat across the spread.

The delta curvature is such that it becomes a flatener on the upside and steepener on the downside [bond prices]. Interesting trade, but not a significant position will be incured in either scenario, unless we move >1SD, then a reversion is necessary. It's flat to short gamma/vega at delta neutrality and "gets shorter" as we trade to the strikes -- short dvega + dgamma [curvatures] due to the net short options in TY.
 
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