Bond market not confirming inflation

[treeman]

Did Powell top tick inflation? Impressive.

I trust bond prices, not narratives.

30 yr yields range-bound at best. TIP/IEF ratio in a downtrend.

 

[mskl]

Who do you think has been buying the long bonds for the last 12 years?

 

[SunTrader]

One of these days JayP's antic ceiling is going to collapse.

 

[treeman]

Who do you think has been buying the long bonds for the last 12 years?

Not inflationists

 

[Specterx]

The Fed is heavily involved in the bond market, and aside from that, everyone believes that inflation will fade away quickly - either on its own as fiscal stimulus fades, or as a couple baby rate hikes are enough to slam the door on global liquidity.

Perhaps the market is right, perhaps not.

 

[SunTrader]

One of these days JayP's antic ceiling is going to collapse.

correction: ....... attic ceiling .....

 

[SunTrader]

The Fed is heavily involved in the bond market, and aside from that, everyone believes that inflation will fade away quickly - either on its own as fiscal stimulus fades, or as a couple baby rate hikes are enough to slam the door on global liquidity.

Perhaps the market is right, perhaps not.

Everyone?

Let's see what happens ... going forward.

 

[treeman]

Perhaps the market is right, perhaps not.

price is the only thing that pays.

 

[Specterx]

Everyone?

Let's see what happens ... going forward.

I think even the professional Fed-haters and Cassandras would agree that, in 2022, the US financial system is so heavily dependent on constant monetary injections, leverage, and speculation that even the tiny baby-step liquidity tightening that we're seeing will quickly cause the markets and economy to tank. (We saw this eg in 2019 with the repo panic) The inflation was also mainly driven by titanic fiscal stimulus causing retail sales to spike above trend, and for the moment there are no more stimmies on the horizon - quite the opposite given political gridlock. So the dominant factor here isn't spiraling inflation, but whether the Fed can tighten gently enough to avoid a panic or crash, and exactly when/where they'll find further tightening impossible. That's pretty much what you see reflected in the action.

If I had to guess I'd say the Fed will get the goldilocks environment it wants, with inflation easing to 3-4% allowing them to keep real rates at -1% to -2%.