Of course it can reach $3000 everything is possible, especially with the "fat-tail" distribution of the markets. What makes it highly unlikely in my view is that the seventies experienced a huge external price shock in the face of the oil crisis. and still gold didn't break $1000. There hasn't been an external shock in the markets approaching that of the seventies. Of course the bonds made some extraordinary moves lately. But I don't think the current situation justifies the claims being made yet.
Bond Futures
- Thread starter spreadem
- Start date
Of course it can reach $3000 everything is possible, especially with the "fat-tail" distribution of the markets. What makes it highly unlikely in my view is that the seventies experienced a huge external price shock in the face of the oil crisis. and still gold didn't break $1000. There hasn't been an external shock in the markets approaching that of the seventies. Of course the bonds made some extraordinary moves lately. But I don't think the current situation justifies the claims being made yet.
Thanks, I appreciate that.
I just try to call 'um like I see 'um.
Regards,
Dr. Zhivodka
Thanks Corn,
In fact, I've seen a few smart people on this board. Too bad they're not more active.
That being said there's definitely a ton of ego and testosterone sloshing through here too.
That's OK we're all competitive traders here.But the good thing is that these traits tend to dissipate over time as one accumulates more "time-in-grade" and one logs more successful years on the trading desk.
Regards,
Dr. Zhivodka
Hi Zboy,
Boy, that would be one big (azz) retracement.
I'm long a few from about 105.11, and I'm looking for a little bounce in here but nothing like that.
This Treasury Refunding that goes off tomorrow will be the tale of the tape. If there's some decent demand for this refunding then we might have put in an intermediate bottom.
But don't be surprised if this auction comes in weak and all hell breaks loose again.
It's a Mexican Standoff right now.
Fun Stuff!
A true professional this Dr. Z.
You should get your own fund? I will clear for you. I am a micro guy but have been working on the macro picture. You need a sidekick?
You should get your own fund? I will clear for you. I am a micro guy but have been working on the macro picture. You need a sidekick?
1)Thanks
2)I've got a fund already. I'm forming another one now.
3)Do you have a clearing firm? Let me know. I'm always looking for good relationships.
4) Generally speaking I do my best work alone. So unless you're very exceptional, probably not. But I never say never. Again let me know
Best,
Dr. Zhivodka
It appears that this auction will go OK. But one never knows as we have one day to go.
So far a long position from the panic low on Friday looks like a good spot.
111.15 or so is the 38.2% retracement from high to low. Assuming we hold the bottom for tomorrows auction, the long trade looks like the easy trade now. (But the easy trade is rarely the right trade)
Regards,
Dr. Zhivodka
BTW: Now maybe our long time bi-continent Bond Guru with come back now "If you're not long your wrong"
So far a long position from the panic low on Friday looks like a good spot.
111.15 or so is the 38.2% retracement from high to low. Assuming we hold the bottom for tomorrows auction, the long trade looks like the easy trade now. (But the easy trade is rarely the right trade)
Regards,
Dr. Zhivodka
BTW: Now maybe our long time bi-continent Bond Guru with come back now "If you're not long your wrong"