Bond Futures

quote from chessman:

Still looking for a place to go long. I think the bond mkt is oversold, lets see what this week brings.
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The Sept Bond is oversold for the short term. It will take an oversold bounce in order for me to get short again. I think that the risk of putting on new short positions is too high at this time, unless you use a large stop. A multiday rally for a couple of points would be just what I'd be looking for before initiating new short positions.

Unfortunately just because it's what I'm looking for means that it probably won't happen.
 
In fact the sept bonds are so oversold that I have taken long position (short term/scalp) at 115'20 in anticipation of a bounce back to 116.
 
115-21 was the 50% retracement from the Mar lows to Mid June highs. 113-24 would be a 61.8% retracement.

I agree Bonds are oversold on a short term basis, I would expect a 2-3 day countertrend rally back up to the 10 EMA which was at 117-22 as of Thursdays close or 118 level.

Good Luck!
 
Ok, I will join you bulls. Went long here a tiny amount at 115-10.
Stop at 114-28. Looking for 116.

I must say, other than bonds being oversold and the fib 50% numbers. There is no empirical chart evidence that the bonds have turned up...maybe trying to catch a falling knife..
 
You guys are trying to out think this bond move and in the process you're being too smart by half.

Bonds and currencies don't trade like shares. Don't try to force them to.

Let them do their thing. Give them a wide berth and then hang on and ride the wave. :)


Dr. Zhivodka
 
quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

You guys are trying to out think this bond move and in the process you're being too smart by half.

Bonds and currencies don't trade like shares. Don't try to force them to.

Let them do their thing. Give them a wide berth and then hang on and ride the wave.
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Amen brother. I found myself getting caught up trying to trade bonds like I trade eminis ... and it just doesn't work.

After an attempt at a counter trend buy signal yesterday didn't work I realize what your saying is indeed true. I took a loss buying sept bonds at 116'20 on what I thought was an oversold bounce only to see the market trade in my direction (long) for about 5 minutes before the bears took control again.

I'd love to have been short but oh well ....
 
Quote from Dr. Zhivodka:

You guys are trying to out think this bond move and in the process you're being too smart by half.

Bonds and currencies don't trade like shares. Don't try to force them to.

Dr. Zhivodka
More...

Yes, the bond bulls took quite a beating today late in the day. I did manage to exit my tiny long position at 115'16.

I still haven't learned my lesson yet. Still looking for a place to go long here.
 
Just heard them talking about the Bond carry trade on CNBC and about it possibly breaking down forcing massive sales of Bonds. Anyone know how low Bonds have to go before this is a real threat to the Bond market?
 
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