Bond Futures
- Thread starter spreadem
- Start date
Profit or Prophet?
Either way there's money to be made on the inflections of either.
Pick your poisons mate.
Dr. Zhivodka
Zboy,
It's an interesting concept, but pure fallacy. Let's revisit history meaning in the last 20 + yrs. The long bond was well below 100 & yielding 14 - 15% in the late 70s or early 80s, I dont remember exactly as I was only a teen. The stock market, we'll use the DOW for comparison was also below 1000 @ this time.
In 1982 it broke & stayed above 1000, & thus was born the BULL of the 80s, & 90s. @ the same time the bond began an upward move, & still is? So until 2000 when equities began to decline, hadn't both bonds & stocks been in a 20 yr. upward cycle together? It would appear so to me.
God Bless & GFtY! Kelly
It's an interesting concept, but pure fallacy. Let's revisit history meaning in the last 20 + yrs. The long bond was well below 100 & yielding 14 - 15% in the late 70s or early 80s, I dont remember exactly as I was only a teen. The stock market, we'll use the DOW for comparison was also below 1000 @ this time.
In 1982 it broke & stayed above 1000, & thus was born the BULL of the 80s, & 90s. @ the same time the bond began an upward move, & still is? So until 2000 when equities began to decline, hadn't both bonds & stocks been in a 20 yr. upward cycle together? It would appear so to me.
God Bless & GFtY! Kelly
As I mentioned in an earlier post, I have no current position. I'm waiting for a break below 118 to confirm a retracement, in which case I'll go short with a break even stop and a target of 112 to 113. If it can't break 118, I'd wait for a break above the high of 123 to go long. For me, until one of the two happens it's no mans land, since I look for swing positions and don't bother with trading wiggles.
Its interesting all you boys trading Bonds, I find 10 Yr Notes much smoother, I think notes responds better to trend following trading system. However bonds are probably better if you're a chart reader.
ps. regarding the comment about boys trading bonds, I think spreadem you're a guy? I can't imagine a woman with a handle like 'spreadem'
Chessman,
I can't imagine a woman with a handle like "chessman" ... uh ... hmm.
Anyway, I agree that notes are smoother and bonds are more volatile. I like the volatility.
A couple of days ago I called my shot. I mentioned that I expected the bonds to top out at 120.5 and complete the right shoulder of a head and shoulder top. I am now short a Sept Bond contract at 120.5. Let's see what happens.
I can't imagine a woman with a handle like "chessman" ... uh ... hmm.
Anyway, I agree that notes are smoother and bonds are more volatile. I like the volatility.
A couple of days ago I called my shot. I mentioned that I expected the bonds to top out at 120.5 and complete the right shoulder of a head and shoulder top. I am now short a Sept Bond contract at 120.5. Let's see what happens.
Spreadem,
Ok, I see what you mean by head n' shoulders top formation. Yes, if the bonds break the neckline at 118 its all over.
I am long the Tnotes, covered 1/2 position earlier today, the rest stop at 118'20. sweating out the fed here.
I trade off 60 min charts, find that a 10 period ma works best. I use that for entry, then use pivot points for stop management.
Are you primarily a chart reader?
Just curious if you look at 10, 5 and 2 year notes as well to guage overall mkt direction?