Bond Futures

SethArb · Jul 22, 2003

I have noticed bonds go higher after the USA close

only to be slammed in our day session

in recent weeks in our move down

zboy2854A · Jul 23, 2003

Yes, I believe there's a good chance of at least a bounce now up to the 115 area. I covered the remaining portion of my short position at 110 and went long at 109'27.

Hugh G Recshun · Jul 23, 2003

Quote from SethArb:

I have noticed bonds go higher after the USA close

only to be slammed in our day session

in recent weeks in our move down

After the USA close, perhaps it's the BOJ buying bonds with the USD from selling JPY?

spreadem · Jul 23, 2003

In recent weeks it seem as though every two day rally becomes a selling opportunity. I don't expect sept bonds to start an extended rally just yet.

spreadem · Jul 28, 2003

Exactly 2 weeks Sept bonds were at 116 ... and now that same futures contract sit at 108. What in the world can justify that? Now I'm no economist, but should I buy in to the suggestion that this nation's economic outlook has gotten that great. Where is the economic boom ... I don't see it.

At this point a slide in the bond market of 15 points (from 123 to 108) in just over a month's time must be considered overdone?

m_c_a98 · Jul 28, 2003

Quote from spreadem:

Exactly 2 weeks Sept bonds were at 116 ... and now that same futures contract sit at 108. What in the world can justify that? Now I'm no economist, but should I buy in to the suggestion that this nation's economic outlook has gotten that great. Where is the economic boom ... I don't see it.

At this point a slide in the bond market of 15 points (from 123 to 108) in just over a month's time must be considered overdone?

Ever think that it was "overdone" before when it was higher :eek:

The deflation scare was Overdone....... there are two sides to every coin.

No matter what the markets do, there is always a rationalization for each side of the proverbial coin.

triple_j · Jul 28, 2003

Quote from triple_j:

you sure you want to go long? my analysis shows we're going down another coupla points from here.

We shall see..........

triple

this was an awesome call

even if I say so myself....................

triple

spreadem · Jul 28, 2003

this was an awesome call

even if I say so myself....................

triple

What is your analysis saying now that we're at 108?

trade-ya · Jul 29, 2003

The reason for the selloff is that the European Central Banks are selling their Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities. For the dealers that buy this paper, they are hedging it buy selling treasury securities against. Have no idea how much longer they will be selling, but watch for a reversal...this is not a fundamentally based moved.

Dr. Zhivodka · Jul 29, 2003

Quote from trade-ya:

The reason for the selloff is that the European Central Banks are selling their Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities. For the dealers that buy this paper, they are hedging it buy selling

Well, not really but close.

Fannie and Freddie themselves are selling against their book in a BIG MF'ing way!

They're trying to dynamically hedge their mortgage exposure but Gamma is whacking their asses!

This is why simplistic "oversold/retracement" style analysis is completely and laughably useless unless you understand the Macro environment in which you're dealing.

Otherwise you're fodder!

Don't overthink (or underthink considering present company) this Bond move.

It's most assuredly a fundamentally based move!

Regards,
Dr. Zhivodka