Blowouts

REDP1800 said:
I am not sure if anyone really understands the situation the marekt is in right now. Due to the microstructure..it is at risk of literally imploding which means that millions of people will have no real way to create wealth slowly. Now it may sound far fetched. But if you want to limit the elite. The have's from the have not's and you want to basically freeze time (money wise). then you kill the stock market and you kill competition and you kill wealth appreciation logn term by those who can only make large sums by slowly investing. I believe HFT and algo's are doing just this very thing and the creators may not even undeerstand it at this point. But, if you were programmed to use artificial intelligence and machine learning and you were told. at any cost to secure profit and monopolize the market then you would have a master plan you would carry out that would "end or win" the game. If this is a "game" tot eh algo's then winning would mean having the most money and shutting down the game..otherwise it never ends and you keep working towards an unachievable goal. If you are A.I. or even human you can realize that if you hut down the market or get others to not invest and during the process you make a killing then in the end you have ULTIMATELY won. OR if the Government or the fed wanted to RESET the usa economically or it's currency issues then a complete collapse of the market with a blame on recession and massive flash crashes would do the trick. Don;t you think it is suspect that they sec cftc really don't know what caused all fo the flash crashes.. HOGWASH. anyway I do not spoof and my point is the algo's are spoofing, layering, and creating moentum ignition a lot whihc are all illegal and disruptive but since algo cod eis considered INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY the sec and the cftc have never been legally allowed to pry into them!! so we human retail investors need to get smart and make it while we can and make it difficult for the algos to GAME US all the time. Palcing and cancelling orders is not illegal.
More...

While others probably miss what you are trying to say, I like your style. Good substance to your posts and thought provoking.
 
I will say this again.. If all algo's are competing for the same thing and they are competing with each other then the path of least resistance is DOWN. Because historically the fastest way to make money in a time versus total moves is down.. you have the biggest moves in 1 day are down and the biggest moves yearly are down. I am talking from a speed stand point.. Yes over long term the mkt goes up..that is not what I am talking about. Fisky cat get's it. he might not agree or he might agree but he sees my point and that i appreciate. now if I was programmed with all the mkt information and i had the ability to manipulate and strategize with billions of dollars and I wanted to be the "SOLE Winner" of the game then I would need to PLAN on a way to END the game. which would be to get the market to zero and have no more participants (competiton). You speed this process up by scaring people from investign with huge volatility (risk). You make money on this by shorting the moves. YES in the end you have stopped your ability to make more money in the long run if the market ends and you WON. but at that point.. it won't matter because you will have all of the money and the game will be over. Humans want to win but understand that we do not want the game (stocsk trading) to end because we have loved ones and other that we care about. we understand the killem all mentality is important to win, but ultimatley if you literally killed all of your football oppopnents then there would never be another season. but the computers.. they don't "THINK" on those terms and tehy don't think about a level of fairness or what is legal and what is illegal. The computers only want to win by any means necessary and they will optimize all of these strategies even if it means implementing strategies now across multiple exchanges and communicating with each other and data to get what they want. even if the OWNERS of the machines are human.. they can still flip a swtich and make the computers think winning is having the market go up or down. so basically all the market is is a bunch of computers being told to take the market higher or take the market lower by any means necessary. ONCE the computers (a.I.) start to think and start to game on their own.. then they figure out what most of the other computers are being told what to do which is Take mkt up or take mkt down.. ALL OF THIS ADDS TO VOLATILITY in our markets and this I believe is exactly what is taking place in our markets starting in FEBRUARY of 2018. They went from beign programmed by humans to being allowed to compete and "think" on their own. It is no surprise that the D-WAVE computers became more accessible by the public corporations around this time. ALL exchanges benefit $$$$ wise from more volume nomatter what the purpose and tighter spreads look like they are giving us better pricing in the short term but what are the far reaching medium term and long term ramifications????????????all bad in my opinion.
 
REDP1800 said:
I will say this again.. If all algo's are competing for the same thing and they are competing with each other then the path of least resistance is DOWN. Because historically the fastest way to make money in a time versus total moves is down.. you have the biggest moves in 1 day are down and the biggest moves yearly are down. I am talking from a speed stand point.. Yes over long term the mkt goes up..that is not what I am talking about. Fisky cat get's it. he might not agree or he might agree but he sees my point and that i appreciate. now if I was programmed with all the mkt information and i had the ability to manipulate and strategize with billions of dollars and I wanted to be the "SOLE Winner" of the game then I would need to PLAN on a way to END the game. which would be to get the market to zero and have no more participants (competiton). You speed this process up by scaring people from investign with huge volatility (risk). You make money on this by shorting the moves. YES in the end you have stopped your ability to make more money in the long run if the market ends and you WON. but at that point.. it won't matter because you will have all of the money and the game will be over. Humans want to win but understand that we do not want the game (stocsk trading) to end because we have loved ones and other that we care about. we understand the killem all mentality is important to win, but ultimatley if you literally killed all of your football oppopnents then there would never be another season. but the computers.. they don't "THINK" on those terms and tehy don't think about a level of fairness or what is legal and what is illegal. The computers only want to win by any means necessary and they will optimize all of these strategies even if it means implementing strategies now across multiple exchanges and communicating with each other and data to get what they want. even if the OWNERS of the machines are human.. they can still flip a swtich and make the computers think winning is having the market go up or down. so basically all the market is is a bunch of computers being told to take the market higher or take the market lower by any means necessary. ONCE the computers (a.I.) start to think and start to game on their own.. then they figure out what most of the other computers are being told what to do which is Take mkt up or take mkt down.. ALL OF THIS ADDS TO VOLATILITY in our markets and this I believe is exactly what is taking place in our markets starting in FEBRUARY of 2018. They went from beign programmed by humans to being allowed to compete and "think" on their own. It is no surprise that the D-WAVE computers became more accessible by the public corporations around this time. ALL exchanges benefit $$$$ wise from more volume nomatter what the purpose and tighter spreads look like they are giving us better pricing in the short term but what are the far reaching medium term and long term ramifications????????????all bad in my opinion.
More...
Lastly, this is why i think a lot of hedge funds have decided to get out of investing. They are throwing i the towel because at what point to do really understand what is going on in the market and the true risk. better to get out now look like a champ for quitting than wait until something crazy happens in the market like down 50 % in 3 months. It really wouldn't take much to move mkt down 60 % JUST LOOK AT A CHART OF BITCOIN or any stock that has dropped that much..overstock.. it can and will happen to the indexes at soem point. I fa lot of my rich friends had money invested with me and had faith in me.. it would be in my BEST INTEREST to send them their money back so I could still enjoy the human relationship I have with them. ALso it opens doors to later opportunities that I might need for survival at my level of income. HEdge funds normally have few CLients or few investors.. look at whale watch and it will show you the number of clients.. most multibillion funds have less than 50 clients!! so yeah the writing is on the wall and our regulators.. sec and cftc are CLUELESS to it all and very very underfunded especially when the EXCHANGES are public and for profit entities. I am all for profit but at what costs..
 
REDP1800 said:
I will say this again.. If all algo's are competing for the same thing and they are competing with each other then the path of least resistance is DOWN. Because historically the fastest way to make money in a time versus total moves is down.. you have the biggest moves in 1 day are down and the biggest moves yearly are down. I am talking from a speed stand point.. Yes over long term the mkt goes up..that is not what I am talking about. Fisky cat get's it. he might not agree or he might agree but he sees my point and that i appreciate. now if I was programmed with all the mkt information and i had the ability to manipulate and strategize with billions of dollars and I wanted to be the "SOLE Winner" of the game then I would need to PLAN on a way to END the game. which would be to get the market to zero and have no more participants (competiton). You speed this process up by scaring people from investign with huge volatility (risk). You make money on this by shorting the moves. YES in the end you have stopped your ability to make more money in the long run if the market ends and you WON. but at that point.. it won't matter because you will have all of the money and the game will be over. Humans want to win but understand that we do not want the game (stocsk trading) to end because we have loved ones and other that we care about. we understand the killem all mentality is important to win, but ultimatley if you literally killed all of your football oppopnents then there would never be another season. but the computers.. they don't "THINK" on those terms and tehy don't think about a level of fairness or what is legal and what is illegal. The computers only want to win by any means necessary and they will optimize all of these strategies even if it means implementing strategies now across multiple exchanges and communicating with each other and data to get what they want. even if the OWNERS of the machines are human.. they can still flip a swtich and make the computers think winning is having the market go up or down. so basically all the market is is a bunch of computers being told to take the market higher or take the market lower by any means necessary. ONCE the computers (a.I.) start to think and start to game on their own.. then they figure out what most of the other computers are being told what to do which is Take mkt up or take mkt down.. ALL OF THIS ADDS TO VOLATILITY in our markets and this I believe is exactly what is taking place in our markets starting in FEBRUARY of 2018. They went from beign programmed by humans to being allowed to compete and "think" on their own. It is no surprise that the D-WAVE computers became more accessible by the public corporations around this time. ALL exchanges benefit $$$$ wise from more volume nomatter what the purpose and tighter spreads look like they are giving us better pricing in the short term but what are the far reaching medium term and long term ramifications????????????all bad in my opinion.
More...

I find your ramblings entertaining.
However, If the game ends then capitalism ends and the currency implodes, and there will be no winners, only losers, because even the ultimate winner that you allude to will be left holding a giant bag of worthless paper and no one wants that.

The volatility in the market this year is not abnormal... once upon a time this kind of volatility was typical but the low-volume bull market the last 8 years has hypnotized investors into adjusting their expectations of 'normal'. Time to readjust again.

You've a lot of interesting theories that individually have some merit but collectively are almost schizophrenic.
 
mbondy said:
I find your ramblings entertaining.
However, If the game ends then capitalism ends and the currency implodes, and there will be no winners, only losers, because even the ultimate winner that you allude to will be left holding a giant bag of worthless paper and no one wants that.

The volatility in the market this year is not abnormal... once upon a time this kind of volatility was typical but the low-volume bull market the last 8 years has hypnotized investors into adjusting their expectations of 'normal'. Time to readjust again.

You've a lot of interesting theories that individually have some merit but collectively are almost schizophrenic.
More...
schizo huh..show me your trades now demo danny! just kidding. i get your point but this volatilty is abnormal considering the vix is only at 22. you have a stat or chart that shows this as normal. incorrect. this many large spikes in both directions. u could be right. i havent looked. still seems awfully volatile..oil too..u think oil usually drops 20 dollars in 3 weeks? yeah totally normal
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top