Blow Up Day!!!!

Great post Momo, you read my mind. That is exactly where I am at this point in my trading career.

FEAR OF BEING WRONG.

Thanks for sharing.

regards,

Bruce Hawkins
 
Only in professional trading and professional sports is it okay not to be near 100% right all the time. And of course it starts from grade school. An acceptable losing percentage.... what is that?

I come from medicine to this biz. Being accurate is everything in this day and time. Think of the architect, a few degrees off here and there and the building collapses. Or the banker, every penny. The accountant same thing.

We are not raised to accept a high percentage of error. So we are crippled from the start. And no amount of coaching or self-preparation is going to correct the situation. I think back to one member's posted journey. He was so sure that he could conquer the emotional part of the game from the start. But it turned out he couldn't. No one can from the beginning using their own initiative. Girlpower said it earlier, it has to be learned.

The good thing is... at least for me.... when I pick a loser, I know that I am that much closer to picking a winner. And this idea is present intra-trade too. When I get in, if I get whipsawed, it's okay, because I know that I am one step closer to the trade taking off. Losers become a good thing from the standpoint that they tell me that a nice phat winner is on the way.

No, I don't love losing, but losers aren't so bad.
 
Quote from skrilla_manilla:




TAKES ONE TO KNOW ONE

BWAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
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It's the reason I tolerate you skrilla'. Losers aren't so bad. Thanks for giving me the opportunity to illustrate the premise.
 
Quote from inandlong:


It's the reason I tolerate you skrilla'. Losers aren't so bad. Thanks for giving me the opportunity to illustrate the premise.
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LOL! :p

GO inandlong! Take no BS from BS'ers! :cool:

~Scientist
 
Quote from momotrdr:

hummmm.. yeah.. the catalyst.

Not one specific thing did it. There is a rather lengthy process that took place to get over this medium sized hurdle for me. To some degree I still find myself running around it from time to time. A few times a month it rears its ugly head.

This is only ONE aspect of the afraid of being wrong ailment;

Basically, one common occurence that was happening to me consistently was I would identify a trade setup early on. I'd say to myself damn I really really feel this baby is going up from here. I should get in now. I'd have my finger on the button. I would hesistate and then..

a few minutes later...

yeah, I knew it would go up. Should've got it.

a little later..

Still strong from here. Probably has up to xxxx.xx to go 'til resistance. If it breaks that its going much higher.

Oh well, I'll get off a short once it gets well overextended...

time passes..

Market is just inching up and up, meanwhile I'm playing spectator trader games in my head and on paper. <- -Which btw, is completely useless.

Why didn't I just take the trade. Everything looked good. All signals were go. All charts, indicators, etc... were screaming at me.
Hell even my dog was barking insanely to take the *uckin trade!

Then I realized, I'm just simply afraid. Not of losing money. Heck at 1000 shares on the QQQ where .01 is $10 move. If it moved .10 against me, I'm only out $100 and at least I took the trade and placed a reasonable stop and moved on.

Nope, I failed to act. I couldn't execute the trade. It was painfully obvious to me at that point. Just didn't want to be wrong. There was too much uncertainty. I actually felt better being out of the stinkn trade and watching the market go up as if it vindicated me by acting as I thought it would. Somehow, making up for all the times I was WRONG, when it stopped me out. This is useless behavior. It does nothing for your trading psychology and more importantly it does nothing for your trading account.

In fact, at the point of optimal entry it is the point of Maximum Uncertainty that you SHOULD be taking the trade. EVERY TIME and on EVERY Trade.

Once I introduced a healthy dose of reality to my psyche, things started to turn for me. I found myself saying ok, so things are all lined up, if I don't take this trade, I'll NEVER.... say it to yourself, NEVER, be a really successful trader. Gotta take the trade.
Gotta accept it if you are wrong.

You know what. I find that I'm more often right now, than wrong, when it counts. Confidence is a funny thing when it comes to trading.
It breeds amongst itself. It makes you more confident. The more times you allow yourself to take the trade when it counts the more eager you are to take those Maximum Uncertainty trades. The more you'll find yourself in those big moves. More importantly even than that, you'll find yourself in them Consistently. In my humble opinion, this is the life's blood of a trader. If you are consistent, no matter how many points you pull each day, if you are consistent you WILL not only survive you will prosper.


Once you find someone that is truely an elitetrader. Someone who has the ability to show you that it is possible to rape the market on a DAILY basis, and that being profitable at the end of each and everyday is possible, you WILL be forever changed.


keep seeking, first in yourself and then once you feel you've made every positive change you can make within, then reach out.


-momo
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momo, this is the BEST post I've ever read on ET. Your early indecision is exactly where I feel I am now. Thank you!

I got away this past weekend and was able to think things over and clear my head. Upon returning home and reading your post it has compounded the decision I've made to TAKE THE DARN TRADE when it sets up to my criteria and, more importantly, ONLY EXIT AS A RESULT OF MY STOPS!

I'm still sick at leaving 7 points on the table Friday - yes 7 points, I went over all my missed trades (14 of 'em) - and over 20 for the week. I think I'm in disbelief at how profitable my strategies are - correction, potentially profitable, because I didn't take them - and the high number of trades that have set-up for me. It's like I can't believe my hours of after-market research can screening for potential next-day plays are so on target.

You're so right; noone can become a good trader until they acquire the confidence and discipline to follow through on their strategies and accept being wrong a lot of the time.

Thanks again.
 
The problem that you talk about is one of the hardest to break through on. The fear of being wrong, but you have your edge don't you? I would suggest traders on this sight all have devoloped a system, rules that they have for making a trade (decision). The system is their edge. The markets are random, but the degree of movement can be measured. Think of it as one big casino but you are an owner, you have an edge. Why have fear of making a trade if you have followed your system. My biggest trades have been when I have followed my system. Losses are almost always when I break the rules I have made. Missed oportunities are a lack of confidence in the system or as you say the fear of being wrong. The trick is to accept and identify the risk before hand, only then will you become more confident. Thought I would share my personel experience with the problem.

Good Luck
Wavetrader
 
Quote from wavetrader1:

The problem that you talk about is one of the hardest to break through on. The fear of being wrong, but you have your edge don't you? I would suggest traders on this sight all have devoloped a system, rules that they have for making a trade (decision). The system is their edge. The markets are random, but the degree of movement can be measured. Think of it as one big casino but you are an owner, you have an edge. Why have fear of making a trade if you have followed your system. My biggest trades have been when I have followed my system. Losses are almost always when I break the rules I have made. Missed oportunities are a lack of confidence in the system or as you say the fear of being wrong. The trick is to accept and identify the risk before hand, only then will you become more confident. Thought I would share my personel experience with the problem.

Good Luck
Wavetrader
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Good post.

I came in today confident and totally prepared to act decisively on any set-ups that met my criteria, and then my prop firm (Echo) has quote problems for an extended period of time during the morning session. Ugh.

Aw well, there's always tomorrow.
 
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