Missouri pops the ObamaCare-media bubble
POSTED AT 8:48 AM ON AUGUST 4, 2010 BY ED MORRISSEY
One meme had materialized over the last couple of weeks that ObamaCare had begun to get more popular with voters. Using a couple of carefully-selected media polls, the White House had started this claim and the press seemed willing to ignore the avalanche of other polling showing that solid majorities favor repeal of the overhaul and the candidates who argue for repeal. That meme died in Missouri, where almost three-quarters of the voters who came to the polls cast votes for a largely symbolic measure repudiating one of ObamaCareâs key provisions:
How big was this victory? Three weeks ago, Rasmussen polled likely voters in Missouri and asked whether they supported repeal of ObamaCare. At that time, 58% said they supported its repeal, with 50% strongly supporting it. Thirty-eight percent said they opposed repeal. That 58/38 split turned into a 71/29 disaster for Democrats and Obama.
If anything, this shows that opposition to ObamaCare is growing, not receding, but thatâs probably not what actually happened. While general-population and registered-voter samples may have seen a bit of softening to ObamaCare opposition, those arenât the people turning out to vote this year. Even Rasmussen may be underestimating the power of ObamaCare repeal in its likely-voter turnout, as their last poll on this question in Missouri clearly underestimated (in an indirect survey, of course) the results for this election.
Bear in mind that over 315,000 Democrats turned out to cast ballots in the primary that nominated Robin Carnahan, while over 577,000 Republicans hit the polls. That is about a 65/35 split â which means that a significant amount of Democrats either supported the ballot measure repudiating ObamaCare, or didnât bother to cast a vote to defend the program. Actually, Prop C got more votes than the combined voting in both Senate primaries â which tells us something even more about the passion in the electorate.
Democrats may have to hit the panic button after seeing the results from this swing state. ObamaCare set fire to the electorate last year, and that may be an inferno for Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid in November.
Addendum: Carnahan should also be very, very worried. Republicans beat Democrats in turnout almost 2-1 in the primaries for the US Senate despite the fact that Blunt won just as big as she did. Thatâs a very bad sign for November for her, too.
POSTED AT 8:48 AM ON AUGUST 4, 2010 BY ED MORRISSEY
One meme had materialized over the last couple of weeks that ObamaCare had begun to get more popular with voters. Using a couple of carefully-selected media polls, the White House had started this claim and the press seemed willing to ignore the avalanche of other polling showing that solid majorities favor repeal of the overhaul and the candidates who argue for repeal. That meme died in Missouri, where almost three-quarters of the voters who came to the polls cast votes for a largely symbolic measure repudiating one of ObamaCareâs key provisions:
How big was this victory? Three weeks ago, Rasmussen polled likely voters in Missouri and asked whether they supported repeal of ObamaCare. At that time, 58% said they supported its repeal, with 50% strongly supporting it. Thirty-eight percent said they opposed repeal. That 58/38 split turned into a 71/29 disaster for Democrats and Obama.
If anything, this shows that opposition to ObamaCare is growing, not receding, but thatâs probably not what actually happened. While general-population and registered-voter samples may have seen a bit of softening to ObamaCare opposition, those arenât the people turning out to vote this year. Even Rasmussen may be underestimating the power of ObamaCare repeal in its likely-voter turnout, as their last poll on this question in Missouri clearly underestimated (in an indirect survey, of course) the results for this election.
Bear in mind that over 315,000 Democrats turned out to cast ballots in the primary that nominated Robin Carnahan, while over 577,000 Republicans hit the polls. That is about a 65/35 split â which means that a significant amount of Democrats either supported the ballot measure repudiating ObamaCare, or didnât bother to cast a vote to defend the program. Actually, Prop C got more votes than the combined voting in both Senate primaries â which tells us something even more about the passion in the electorate.
Democrats may have to hit the panic button after seeing the results from this swing state. ObamaCare set fire to the electorate last year, and that may be an inferno for Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid in November.
Addendum: Carnahan should also be very, very worried. Republicans beat Democrats in turnout almost 2-1 in the primaries for the US Senate despite the fact that Blunt won just as big as she did. Thatâs a very bad sign for November for her, too.
