Bloomberg Foresees Bitcoin Rallying to $400K This Year

[johnarb]

Hash rates going up. Cost of mining higher and higher, so the price has no where to go but up.... until....

This is false. Spend some time and think of the game theory incentives in bitcoin, come back if you need help, I can walk you through it

....and whose 'cost of production' and quantity is determined by the producers/owners, and has been set to increase by more than +100% per year since inception, and thrives on people needing to buy that asset at more than the cost... ....

Your logic is incorrect, it most likely stems from you not understanding the economic incentives of bitcoin mining

The subject is not an easy concept. Happy to assist in discussing it with you if you wish. I was a bitcoin miner in 2014

https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

 

[Nobert]

Now continue banging your fists on the table while chanting "bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin".

lol.

The thing about btc fans - a pattern i see :

Most can't do neither TA or FA.
Think that it's the best way to make monies while preaching about doomsday and fiat stoping to work.
Ignore the danger of a flash type of a crash/ban.


Market wizards is full of stories, of rags to riches to rags. Because they were not properly allocated and went all in on some product , to get 400% quickly, and then wham bam thank you mam, hello trailer park.

If it was preached in a sane mind, that, let's say, no more than 3% - 5% of your net worth in cryptos, then it's tolerable, but now the song goes as (or more often then not) :

All in boyz & hodl.

No difference from YOLO.

And even then, anyone honest enough, knows the real usage of it, darkweb etc.
Question : do i want to be associated with such stuff ?

@johnarb it would be refreshing, to see, sometimes, an article or two from you, non - crypto related. Now it looks only as obsession/pump.

 

[johnarb]

lol.
@johnarb it would be refreshing, to see, sometimes, an article or two from you, non - crypto related. Now it looks only as obsession/pump.

I post outside of Cryptocurrencies forum and non-crypto related, not much... in the hardware section, Tesla, and on neke's journal...

@Nobert I'm all in on bitcoin (cryptos). Obsession? I'd like to call it dedication

I have to spend most of my time constantly watching all the things going on with bitcoin/cryptos as we have our net worth invested in it

I always say I'm not a financial advisor.... but I wish I was, then I could tell everyone on the forum to just fucking do it

Buy as much bitcoin as you can afford during this bull market. It is the safest risk/reward trade you can make. I thought that's what ET was about, to leak alpha and share trade and investment ideas....

I have to constantly watch all the stuff that makes up this bull market, the demand and the supply and the adoption. If things are not as good anymore, then it will start to show in these things and perhaps, the bull market is ending and it's time to exit...

I'm thinking of quitting ET when btc hits $100K. No one's really changing their minds no matter what significant news are posted here

The naysayers will continue to be

 

[Pekelo]

You didn't post on this forum for over 2 years

What does that have to do with anything? Not an argument at all. On the other hand Neke meant, it was a ponzi 2 years ago, it is still a ponzi now and it will still be a ponzi 2 years from now. He just simplified it.

 

[Pekelo]

#HaveFunStayingPoor

Yeah, clearly, not a ponzi...

My crypto portfolio went down 80%+ from top to bottom in the 2014-2016 bear market and about 90% during the 2018-2020 bear market

And you call yourself a trader. That is simply cultist behaviour.

 

[johnarb]

And you call yourself a trader. That is simply cultist behaviour.

I've traded with no leverage a portfolio valued m2m $80K in Nov 2019 to currently $2.2M m2m after cashout of $160K

I've outperformed btc in most if not all time frames during that period

I'm doing ok...

 

[NoahA]

I have to spend most of my time constantly watching all the things going on with bitcoin/cryptos as we have our net worth invested in it

What about all the factors you can't control? On Feb 21, it topped dropped 26% to 43k by Feb 28. On March 13, it dropped 18% to a low just above 50K on March 25. Those are some pretty big numbers that apparently had no structural or fundamental reason. Do you not worry about a piece of news that instantly wipes out 50% of the value? The liquidity seems incredibly low if everyone wants to run for the exits should a fundamental piece of news hit.

I have read the arguments about how the government doesn't want to take something down that is already at 2T market cap because of the knock-on effects, but do you not agree that so much market cap can easily be eliminated with a simple speech by the right individual?

 

[johnarb]

What about all the factors you can't control? On Feb 21, it topped dropped 26% to 43k by Feb 28. On March 13, it dropped 18% to a low just above 50K on March 25. Those are some pretty big numbers that apparently had no structural or fundamental reason. Do you not worry about a piece of news that instantly wipes out 50% of the value? The liquidity seems incredibly low if everyone wants to run for the exits should a fundamental piece of news hit.

I have read the arguments about how the government doesn't want to take something down that is already at 2T market cap because of the knock-on effects, but do you not agree that so much market cap can easily be eliminated with a simple speech by the right individual?

You gave 2 examples that are nowhere near 50% corrections. In a bull market, bitcoin doesn't go down 50%

If you can't handle the 30% mini corrections, you do not deserve the hundreds or even thousands of % returns

I don't trade with leverage. That's my advice. Hodl, everything else is noise

Check the bitcoin price thread, I posted a video about trading bitcoin in a bull market between Peter McCormack and Willy Woo. The reason we cannot go down more than 30% is because of all the big $$$ coming in providing support. I also posted a link to a twitter post on this, as shown by glass node charts.

Everyone has to do their own dd

 

[NoahA]

he reason we cannot go down more than 30% is because of all the big $$$ coming in providing support.

And once the big money stops coming in? Can crypto not survive unless there is always big money coming in?

Also, I didn't mean to imply that my examples were crashes. I just mean that you have 100% of your net worth in crypto, and twice in only 2 months you have lost a considerable amount. The idea that it always comes back I think has ruined many traders. Sure, you can say crypto is too big to go down at this point, but I believe it only takes one tweet by the right person to start a very deep bear market. Everyone will run for the exits because most are in it just to make money on the way up. Hardly anyone is a die hard that will stomach a 50% correction. I bet that even TSLA would be very worried if price dropped below their average entry point.

The trouble is that you guys say a 25% correction is nothing. So at what point do you call it a bear market, once its down over 50%, 75%? I'm all for making money on the way up, but most people aren't fanatics like you. And you need a constant stream of fanatics to keep it going. It doesn't matter how fundamentally different and important you think this is if there aren't constantly fresh recruits into this ponzi scheme, and big money as you outline.

 

[johnarb]

And once the big money stops coming in? Can crypto not survive unless there is always big money coming in?

Also, I didn't mean to imply that my examples were crashes. I just mean that you have 100% of your net worth in crypto, and twice in only 2 months you have lost a considerable amount. The idea that it always comes back I think has ruined many traders. Sure, you can say crypto is too big to go down at this point, but I believe it only takes one tweet by the right person to start a very deep bear market. Everyone will run for the exits because most are in it just to make money on the way up. Hardly anyone is a die hard that will stomach a 50% correction. I bet that even TSLA would be very worried if price dropped below their average entry point.

The trouble is that you guys say a 25% correction is nothing. So at what point do you call it a bear market, once its down over 50%, 75%? I'm all for making money on the way up, but most people aren't fanatics like you. And you need a constant stream of fanatics to keep it going. It doesn't matter how fundamentally different and important you think this is if there aren't constantly fresh recruits into this ponzi scheme, and big money as you outline.

I cannot argue hypotheticals. Please watch the video

I'm doing ok, you have to do you

I'm not recruiting anyone here on ET. Have you watched CNBC? Bitcoin has its own ticker in the same league as the majors, i.e. Nasdaq, 10yr, Dow, S&P,

Bitcoin does not need the support of ET investors to keep going up. Don't be so self-centered to think you matter to bitcoin. It's a worldwide digital investment asset