bln's playground

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bln

Trying out some short term trading using weekly SPY options.

Have had a tough time discovering a short term trading model that produces alpha and can successfully pass statistical validation. Maybe this model being tested live in this thread with some real money will finally work out.. or not.. the odds are minuscule and I have zero expectation of a successful outcome
 
Real money equity book start value is $1000

Will round amounts up/down to a full dollar for easier reporting

Trade #1 - long signal
Jul 19 - bought 10 cts of Jul24 Bull debit spread +299.5/-300 for $264
Result: Win, profit $236
Realized book: $1236

Trade #2 - short signal
Jul 29 - bought 7 cts of Aug02 Bear debit spread +302.5/-302 for $200
Result: Win, profit $300
Realized book: $1536
 
dozu888 said:
this will never work.... you need to unfold stories... like there is a big one going on right now.
More...
Maybe you're right.. we'll see if it will crash into the ground.. or fly. It will be a fun ride anyhow
 
bln said:
Maybe you're right.. we'll see if it will crash into the ground.. or fly. It will be a fun ride anyhow
More...

I just made a post in my thread 'trading is easy'.... nothing too fancy, just an example of what I do over the years.
 
Did spot an calculation error on trade #2

Profit for the trade is $150 (7 contracts * $50 intrinsic value) and realized book value then becomes $1386
 
Another swing trade completed yesterday.

Trade #3 - long signal
Aug 6 - bought 5 cts of Aug12 Bull debit spread +287/-288 for $321
Result: Win, profit $179
Realized book: $1565
 
It still smells like alpha.

Trade #4 - short signal
Aug 12 - bought 15 cts of Aug 16 Bear debit spread +290/-289.50 for $411
Result: Win, Profit of $339
Realized book: $1904
 
Have decided to move using credit spreads instead as commissions are eating into profit to much due to small trade size, at least as long as account equity remain tiny. OCC settlement is free so I will make a little extra on better exit price and avoid paying to close the position . This will give me an ~$50 additional per trade.
 
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