Blackstone IPO

[S2007S]

guest on cnbc said he is comparing the blackstone IPO to the AOL/timewarner merger.

 

[traderyin]

SOLD.

You know who's on the other side of the trade when you buy Blackstone? I rather not take the trade.

 

[The Greeks]

This has to be the top....no?

 

[ByLoSellHi]

Blackstone is essentially a REIT.

If you look at their income, which is admittedly huge, the OVERWHELMING majority of it is CONCENTRATED in and DERIVED from real estate holdings.

If you want to know when Blackstone will hurt, look no further than to the office and commercial real estate markets.

There will always be cycles in these markets.

 

[infolode]

Quote from The Greeks:

This has to be the top....no?

Quite possibly but there remains a small chance for a run to S&P
1510-21 if the old high near 1460 can be regained. Normally this would be
near impossible but with the Blackstone IPO and Quarter End this next
week, I wouldn’t bet too heavily against the Establishment. Downside
remains 1350-1310.

Here's what I find contradictive.

The huge leveraged buyouts and mergers seem to
demonstrate plenty of money around to speculate with, and yet two of the biggest most successful hedge funds
have now decided to raise money through public IPO’s.
you don’t borrow short to lend long. In other words you don’t borrow
through 30-day commercial paper to fund a 30-year loan. These hedge funds have done exactly that having
leveraged up their balance sheet with borrowed money, derivatives, and big politically active investors who can
redeem their capital on 90 days notice.
These funds must go public and sell while the money
is still there.

So last weeks rebound, was it the FED statement that
led to a great 170 point Dow rally for Forty Minutes on the 21 or was it the putting a huge buy program on by shorting 20-30
thousand each of the 138 & 140 SPDR puts and buying 143 calls.

I wonder who did that?

That made everyone warm and fuzzy for a New York minute..err..40 minutes.

This next week is the quarter end and year-end of several of the world’s biggest mutual
funds. At quarter end (and December 31st, year end) they legally can’t sell much since their SEC filed
prospectuses show most all of them to be long term investors and not market timers so they need to show less
than 5% cash balances on March 30th. The first of April, however, could see a rush to raise 20% cash, as the
next public statement of cash levels won’t be until June 30th.

What will be happening next isn't hard to figure out.

Monday 26 Market up

27 D
28 D
29 D
30 D

7.02.07 D
03 U
04 D
05 D
09 U
10 U
11 U
12 D
13 D
16 U

 

[infolode]

Quote from infolode:

Quite possibly but there remains a small chance for a run to S&P
1510-21 if the old high near 1460 can be regained. Normally this would be
near impossible but with the Blackstone IPO and Quarter End this next
week, I wouldn’t bet too heavily against the Establishment. Downside
remains 1350-1310.

Here's what I find contradictive.

The huge leveraged buyouts and mergers seem to
demonstrate plenty of money around to speculate with, and yet two of the biggest most successful hedge funds
have now decided to raise money through public IPO’s.
you don’t borrow short to lend long. In other words you don’t borrow
through 30-day commercial paper to fund a 30-year loan. These hedge funds have done exactly that having
leveraged up their balance sheet with borrowed money, derivatives, and big politically active investors who can
redeem their capital on 90 days notice.
These funds must go public and sell while the money
is still there.

So last weeks rebound, was it the FED statement that
led to a great 170 point Dow rally for Forty Minutes on the 21 or was it the putting a huge buy program on by shorting 20-30
thousand each of the 138 & 140 SPDR puts and buying 143 calls.

I wonder who did that?

That made everyone warm and fuzzy for a New York minute..err..40 minutes.

This next week is the quarter end and year-end of several of the world’s biggest mutual
funds. At quarter end (and December 31st, year end) they legally can’t sell much since their SEC filed
prospectuses show most all of them to be long term investors and not market timers so they need to show less
than 5% cash balances on March 30th. The first of April, however, could see a rush to raise 20% cash, as the
next public statement of cash levels won’t be until June 30th.

What will be happening next isn't hard to figure out.

Monday 26 Market up

27 D
28 D
29 D
30 D

04.02.07 D*
03 U
04 D
05 D
09 U
10 U
11 U
12 D
13 D
16 U

*correction (04) April

 

[Artie21]

Quote from S2007S:

But Blackstone and other firms also have become lightning rods for criticism. Detractors say they strip-mine companies by saddling them with crushing debt while making enormous payouts to themselves.

Despite a heavy snow storm on the East Coast on Friday, Wall Street was buzzing with speculation about why a firm that takes companies private would itself contemplate going public.

Marc Morgenstern, a San Francisco lawyer and veteran dealmaker, said going public would allow Blackstone's founders to seamlessly cash out their stakes when they retire and would let the firm compensate employees with stock options.

It also would give Blackstone a war chest with which to buy other private equity firms, or for emergencies if the market turns down.

"It's always a good idea to take money off the table when you can, and you don't always know when you can," Morgenstern said.

Morgenstern and others said that Blackstone did not need the money to do deals, and that that probably was not its primary motivation in going public. Sarbanes-Oxley be damned. Take out a few executive suite pigs and execute them. Humility and ressponsibility will see a new dawn among corporate America.


For individual investors, a Blackstone IPO would give them a chance to bet on a firm and a Wall Street trend that has until now been the domain of the well-heeled.

But the deal also is likely to be richly priced. And some experts say Blackstone's willingness to go public may signal at least a short-term top in the market.

This is the entire problem with public equity markets. Thier raisonne d etre is as much the need for capital funding as the desire for an open spigot of cash for the original shareholders and the officers. The stock market has become an enormous wealth transfer mechanism, from the many to the few.